Michael Covel talks with Nick Atkeson. Atkeson's book is called "Win By Not Losing: A Disciplined Approach to Building and Protecting Your Wealth in the Stock Market by Managing Your Risk". Covel and Atkeson talk about momentum and streaks; some of the stories contained in Atkeson's book, including "Sonny" in Vegas and his ability to disrupt the earnings of the Rio Casino, and the idea of the "theo"; why people should invest at all; uncertainty in the markets, with jobs, and in retirement; market timing; asset allocation decisions; negative tail risk; black swans; what happens when/if the US potentially defaults on its debt; the idea of "systematic", taking your losses, and behavioral finance; loss avoidance; and how Atkeson got started in his career. Atkeson can be found at deltaim.com. Free trend following DVD: trendfollowing.com/win.
Michael Covel launches into the headlines of managed futures and trend following. Many headlines in the past few months have tangentially touched on the trend following world and Covel sets the record straight. Covel talks about the battle in his world over the phrase "managed futures". A phrase that was created for one reason only from his perspective: to produce commissions. Who cares what the instrument is? It's irrelevant. The only relevant issue is: what is the strategy and how can it help the end user? Covel discusses "managed futures", black box trading, Ray Dalio, Bill Dunn, and an article called "How Investors Lose 89% of Gains From Futures Funds". Covel moves onto the confusion with the phrase trend following and brings up a company named FX Concepts and its leader John Taylor. Yet is this doomed 14B hedge fund really trend following? Covel sees prediction, an assortment of other strategies, and efforts to forecast what the next government move is going to be. That's not trend following. This is a real effort to break apart the headlines giving the end user a look behind the scenes at how the system wants you indoctrinated. Want a free trend following DVD: www.trendfollowing.com/win.
Today on the podcast Michael Covel speaks with Lewis Howes. Howes is a lifestyle entrepreneur with a wealth of different experiences, from starting new businesses to pro-athletics. Covel and Howes discuss what a "lifestyle entrepreneur" really is; how his beginnings in athletics and an injury led to where Howes is today; sacrifice in the context of sports and business; Howes' early influences and mentors; some of Howes' early successes; the shift from success to impact; why "I want to make a billion dollars" is not a great goal to set for yourself; the importance of knowing the "why" of your goals; Howes' experience with his podcast; why doing something different every day is important to happiness; advice for those who want to make fitness a part of their lives; and sleep management. Howes can be reached at LewisHowes.com and can also be found on his "School of Greatness" podcast on iTunes. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to www.trendfollowing.com/win.
Michael Covel speaks with trader and author Larry Williams. Williams has been in the trading game for over four decades. Covel and Williams discuss the IRS and Congress; targeting of individuals and groups by the government; facing the government in a court case and negotiating with the IRS; how Williams approached trading at the beginning, and his motivations to do so; how growing up in Montana affected Williams personally; how Williams came to run for Senate and his reasoning for doing so; the importance of speculation, and the difference between speculation and gambling; how Williams made the migration from stocks to thinking about futures; how Williams approached the emotional and money management sides of the equation; risk control; understanding what kind of system "fits" you best; the changing condition of markets; keeping it simple; the importance of learning from injury; and how Williams came to his Libertarian mindset. Larry Williams has a legendary name within trading circles. His grounded & calm reasoning will provide new traders confidence, and experienced traders those needed reminders. Free trend following DVD: trendfollowing.com/win.
Author and strategist Ryan Holiday returns to the podcast. Holiday's new book, "Growth Hacker Marketing" struck Covel as codifying many of the most important entrepreneurial precepts for success today. Covel and Holiday discuss the definition of "growth hacking"; the different forms of growth hacking; why many other marketing books pertain to big business rather than startups; the startup mentality; how Holiday turned to Bittorrent to launch Tim Ferriss' "The 4-Hour Chef"; platforms in the growth hacking mindset; letting others be lucky; growth hacking in the context of startups; the idea of a product market fit, changing your product, and assessing its strengths and weaknesses; the marketing implications of knowing the "the product is never done"; standing by your convictions but being open minded to change; the anachronism of press releases; Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram; the concept of other peoples' money, the lack of flexibility that goes along with that, and the importance of being able to change. Whether you are an entrepreneur with your unique idea, or even a trader, Holiday's engineering way of approaching the world should not be ignored. It's all about hard work and resourcefullness. Ryan Holiday can be reached at RyanHoliday.net and "Growth Hacker Marketing" is available wherever e-books are sold. Free Covel trend following DVD: trendfollowing.com/win.
Michael Covel speaks with Harry Binswanger on today's podcast. Binswanger is an American philosopher, writer, and Objectivist as a long-time associate of Ayn Rand. Binswanger was recently interviewed by Henry Blodget regarding Binswanger's article on the value of the 1%, and Binswanger expands on this in today's interview with Covel. Covel and Binswanger also discuss being inspired by the 1%, and why his article caused such an uproar; the nature of trade; envy and jealousy; understanding where entrepreneurs start and how wealth is created; the bailouts of 2008; Wal-Mart and its many innovations; why money isn't the root of all evil; seeing Ayn Rand's work woven into the cultural fabric; statism; Navigators and the new health care laws; why the wealthiest counties in America all surround Washington, DC; why we're at the "tipping point" in society today; thoughts on Ron Paul vs. the principles of Ayn Rand. Binswanger can be found on HBlist.com and writes a column for Forbes. Free trend following DVD: trendfollowing.com/win.
Today on the podcast Michael Covel speaks with Tom O'Connell of O'Connell Sports Management. Since 1997 O'Connell has represented over 70 professional baseball players and is a certified agent with the Major League Baseball Players Association. O'Connell has a fantastic entrepreneurial story about starting from scratch, grinding it out and having massive passion. Covel and O'Connell discuss how O'Connell became the entrepreneur he is today, starting off in the club business; his plans for the baseball offseason; "Moneyball" and the use of statistics; salary arbitration; projecting results into the following year; the importance of risk; what O'Connell learned from working with baseball scouts; competition amongst other agents; comparisons to the hedge fund world; some of the more interesting baseball characters that O'Connell has sat down with; and the importance of getting out of your comfort zone. Even if you have no interest in baseball, this conversation is more directly about making something big happen in life and taking responsibility. A great inspirational story. For more information on Tom O'Connell go to www.toconnellsports.com. Free trend following DVD: trendfollowing.com/win.
Today on the podcast Michael Covel speaks with Richard Noble. Noble likes to go very fast. In fact, the Scottish entrepreneur held the land-speed record between 1983 and 1997. His current team is aiming to go over 1000 MPH on the ground in a car. Covel and Noble discuss what 600 MPH feels like to someone who has never been there before; the mental processes when you're going at high speeds; process vs. outcome; the danger of emotional highs; Noble's entrepreneurial spirit; how Noble got the desire for the land-speed record at the age of six; whether Noble views his endeavors as "life threatening"; the idea of "higher risk" in life and society today; the importance of taking risks; the idea of developing a "risk culture"; motivating people to come over to your own perspective; the difficulties Noble experienced with British culture, the media, and with big companies; the parallel experiences Covel and Noble have had on the web; and where Noble stands on breaking the 1000 MPH barrier right now. For more information on Richard Noble, go to www.bloodhoundssc.com. Free trend following DVD: trendfollowing.com/win.
Michael Covel recently interviewed Peter Borish, who has an unparalleled background in charity. He helps run his charity like a business; there has to be results. Because if you don't run it like a business, there is often waste. Building on that idea Covel's perspective is that Government does the opposite. Covel moves on and discusses wealth inequality between the 1% and the 99%--a favorite societal debate today. For example, the Wal-Mart heirs have the same wealth as the bottom 30-40% of America's entire population. Covel thinks that when it comes to the inequality debate, however, that the government is ultimately responsible for inequality. They're pimping out the American people to large operations, whether that's banks, insurance companies, pharmaceutical companies, and or fast food companies. Covel gets into specifics about this "pimping" behavior discussing how else the government creates inequality and discusses mandated healthcare. In the midst of all this chaos, there are trends--big ones. Covel notes that one of those trends is Singapore, and how it appears to be Ayn Rand's "Galt's Gulch". Average as a state of mind--is the poison to eliminate. Who wants to be average? You have to figure out a way to make yourself valuable--above average. Covel explores it all with attitude and tough questions. Free trend following DVD: trendfollowing.com/win.
Michael Covel speaks to Tim Dyer, an RIA (Registered Investment Advisor) in La Jolla, CA. Dyer has also seen the brokerage side of the world too, shares insights regarding how these worlds work, and how clients navigate the waters of professional investing advice. Covel and Dyer discuss what an RIA does for the average investor; the difference between trend following fund managers and the RIA world; the difference between hiring Merrill Lynch and hiring an independent RIA; fiduciary suitability; black swan protection; benchmark issues; Warren Buffett declaring The Fed as history's greatest hedge fund; how the Internet might open up the RIA world, and the value of human-based advice in the RIA world; the disingenuousness of focusing only on the benefits, and failing to see the risks; and why some might say it "feels like 1999" today. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.
Michael Covel speaks with Michael Konik, author of "The Smart Money". Konik has had a fantastic experience in the world of sports betting, and the parallels between his world and the trend following world are off the charts. Konik and Covel talk about the similarities between Konik's world and the Turtle story; Konik's background and how he came into this world of rule-based betting; some of the stories about "Big Daddy" Rick Matthews (fake name for a very high profile individual featured on 60 Minutes), the main character in Konik's book and the most successful sports wagerer in the world; position limits; Konik's theater background and how it tied in to the experiment; sports betting technique, the line, the Kelly Criteria, and "Big Daddy's" own line; the "brain trust" and how "Big Daddy" led his operation; point spreads; looking for value rather than a favorite home team; the importance of a dispassionate outlook; the importance of knowing why you place a bet or trade; how the brain trust came up with a line better than the other lines out there; the importance of injuries in sports betting. For more information on Michael Konik, visit MichaelKonik.com. Want a free trend following DVD: www.trendfollowing.com/win.
Michael Covel talks to Peter Borish, founder, chairman, and CEO of Computer Trading Corporation. He's also a founding board member of the Robin Hood Foundation, one of the great American charities. Borish has seen much in the financial world over several decades and is a wealth of insights. Covel and Borish have a wide-ranging conversation, covering Borish's charity work, the political side of money, and the trading side. They discuss subjects such as the roots and successes of Borish's charity work; dealing with the fact that you can't help everybody; advice to future non-profit workers; the parallels between non-profits and regular businesses; where things stand today, five years after the 2008 financial crisis; if we're still in an "emergency time" today; corporate welfare vs. social welfare; the lurking black swan and possible equity bubble; discussing whether March of 2009 was like July of 1932; the impact of the internet; Borish's book recommendations and early experiences; and taking the emotions out of trading. Complimentary trend following DVD: www.trendfollowing.com/win.
Whenever Michael Covel sees something totally crazy, totally off the rails, he thinks of "Sloop John B" by the Beach Boys. This is surely the strangest trip he's ever been on. Tonight, he saw Warren Buffett call the Federal Reserve "history's greatest hedge fund". You didn't vote for a hedge fund? Well, guess what? One of America's best investors has declared the Federal Reserve history's greatest hedge fund. Covel discusses hedge funds and "the grand experiment" Buffett talks about. Covel discusses media manipulation and deception. Do you want to be a part of the hedge fund that is the Federal Reserve, or do you want to try a strategy for yourself? Covel moves on to play a clip from Suze Orman, who positions herself as a buy and hold guru, but gives a talk about day trading. Irony is a great way to learn, and boy is there some fantastic irony herein. Receive a free trend following DVD: trendfollowing.com/win.
Today on the podcast, Michael Covel discusses certainty and uncertainty. When it comes to tomorrow, Covel is majorly uncertain. He doesn't know what's going to happen. He can think of the worst case scenarios, though; a Stoic tradition. Many people today figure the crisis of '08 was a few years back, the Fed has everything figured out, and the stock market is at all time highs. There's nothing to be worried about. Covel reads several quotes to start off the podcast, from Gilda Radner and Richard P. Feynman. Covel questions why most investors don't think like this, and notes that 59% of US investors believe the markets can be predicted. Covel discusses the trend following mindset in contrast, and moves on to talk about Ray Dalio and his 100% systematic trading strategy based on fundamentals. But how do you know when you have enough fundamental data to make a decision? How do you account for the remaining uncertainty? Covel explores. Next, Covel talks about using simple heuristics to make decisions. The simplest factor to follow is the price. That's the only thing you can be certain about. So if you can make decisions off price movement, and use that as a simple heuristic for your buying and selling decisions, you might have something that works for dealing with market uncertainty. From a trend following perspective, simple heuristics is all about trading the price. Free DVD: www.trendfollowing.com/win.
Michael Covel speaks with Mike Bellafiore, author of "The PlayBook". Bellafiore trades an entirely different style than trend following, operating on a much shorter timeframe. Covel and Bellafiore discuss the real rewards to being a successful trader; passion in trading; why professional traders fail; parallels between trading and writing; Bellafiore's history and definitions of "prop trading"; trading short timeframes and intraday trading; the "prop desk"; ups and downs in Bellafiore's career; the early history of SMB Capital; Bellafiore's early struggles with his father's health concerns, his mother's death, an SEC investigation, and how "The PlayBook" came out of it; the ten attributes of a great trader; trading psychology and mindset; personality types and short-term trading; microscalping and swing trading; expertise, flow, and mastery; process vs. outcome; entrepreneurship; the importance of coaching; and the four ways to become great at anything. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.
Michael Covel talks with Patrick Boyle of Palomar Fund Management. Covel and Boyle talk about directional trading; timeframes in trading and short-term trading; Boyle's background and how he came to be a founding partner of Palomar; Boyle's time working with Victor Niederhoffer; Niederhoffer and his teaching lineage; David Harding and Bill Dunn; Boyle's political stances, the Fed, and the SEC; risk and running a directional fund; performance correlation to the S&P and the trend following CTA's; the big picture takeaways that Boyle learned under Niederhoffer; correlations to people who have come out of Niederhoffer's shop; Monroe Trout; testing ideas; how quantitative analysis is different from technical analysis; the book publishing industry, and why all the secrets might not be in a $20 book; where Palomar Fund Management is at today; foundational advice to the budding fund manager; and libertarianism. Free trend following DVD: www.trendfollowing.com/win.
Michael Covel reads a listener letter he received after his podcast with Gerald Celente. Covel discusses the alternative to not trying, inspiration, and what it takes to be the next David Harding or Bill Dunn. The point is not to be one of these people--it's to give you an above-average chance to make money on your own account. It does no good to compare yourself to billionaires. You can shoot for it, you can strive for it, but you can blow a life and never get there. That's just the pure odds of it all. It's about becoming the next you: your situation. The idea is to be above average and to do the best for your life and your situation. That's the objective. Next, Covel talks about a bizarre accident in China leading into a comment from President Obama about booms and busts. Why are we afraid to criticize Obama? Covel explores. Next, Covel plays a clip from Penn Jillette on the truth, and reads from Tim Price's newsletter. We don't know when the next meltdown will be, but we know it's coming. When? You don't know when, but you need a plan of attack. That strategy has to excel when things are getting a little raw or dicey. Next, Covel plays a clip from Nassim Taleb on anti-fragility. If we know that bubbles are just part of the world we live in, what kind of strategy makes sense in a world dominated by chaos? Trend following is the answer. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.
Michael Covel speaks with Gerald Celente, the Publisher of the Trends Journal. Covel and Celente discuss how nefarious the zero interest rate policy really is; forced gambling in the equity markets; the desensitization of the American public; the situation with Syria today; post-dot-com bubble policy in America; solutions to the complex problems today, a "reset to morality", and how it's really up to the individuals to take back what they once had (personal responsibility); deregulation and Glass-Steagall; the days of a level playing field in America; Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley being saved in the 2008 crisis, and "too big to fail"; fascism in America; Celente's visit to Vietnam; and war and altruism as trends in 2013 and 2014. This conversation with Gerald and Michael is not designed to make anyone money, but rather it is designed to give an honest picture of the landscape across the world in the fall of 2013. Chaos rules. Volatility rules. This conversation spells out why that is true and its up to you to determine a plan to solve it for you and your family. Free trend following DVD: www.trendfollowing.com/win.
Jim Quinn has a blog called "The Burning Platform", and Michael Covel reads a blog post of his called "Trying To Stay Sane In An Insane World". It's tough to disagree with as Quinn hits the mark. This is a fantastic way to think about Covel's world, the trend following world, in the context of trading. In Covel's world, if Quinn is describing the world accurately, there is no better solution for the chaos than trend following. Quinn makes the case that the chaos isn't going to end anytime soon. Covel goes on to read a short excerpt from CBS MarketWatch that dovetails in nicely to the end of Quinn's piece. This piece discusses the blind optimism of many investors. Covel notes that if this is the landscape that we're facing, if this boom-bust cycle is here in perpetuity, then there's only one strategy that makes any sense. There's only one strategy that has any proof of success: trend following. Trend following is the strategy that takes advantage of societal insanity: whether it's the politicians and the bankers, or the people that blindly follow them. At the end of the day once you've accepted the wisdom of these two articles, you can't really get upset about it. That's the world, the hand dealt. So what can you do? You can pretend to know all and be a fundamental follower, but if you've got a rigged system, the fundamentals don't matter. Or you can accept our upside down world and take advantage of it with a trend following mindset and strategy. Free trend following DVD: trendfollowing.com/win.
Michael Covel talks with Dan Andrews. Andrews runs a very popular podcast at TropicalMBA.com. Covel and Andrews talk about "location independence"; optimizing for time and mobility; Andrews' beginnings as a teenager to where he is today; artists and entrepreneurs; Andrews' beginnings; how being in an entirely different atmosphere can bring out your creativity; how Paris in the 1920's relates to the creative explosion in Asia; the importance of having a blog and telling your story; why people need stories and ideas to follow; telling a story with your business; the importance of "starting" and the iterative process; your brand, and the nature of how you interact with people; thinking you know how to "do it" before you know how the "soup" is made; how hard work means so much more than talent; self-control, self-discipline; "failing forward" and getting used to taking emotional risks; hyper-globalization of small businesses; the revolution of podcasting; distractions, laziness, and doing an inventory on your time. Plus, to make it interesting, Covel and Andrews do the podcast in the same room in Saigon. An interesting conversation for anyone looking to leave the office cube work environment. Want a free trend following DVD? www.trendfollowing.com/win.
Michael Covel speaks with Eric Wong on today's podcast. Wong is with a family office based out of Hong Kong--his own family's office. His family is a group of entrepreneurs going back many decades, and Wong discusses their history and how he got to where he is today. Covel and Wong also discuss how the rest of the world has a long way to go to understanding how China operates; the niche that Wong's family office, TCG, occupies in the trading space; uncorrelated returns; the advantages of working for a family office; the entrepreneurial history of Wong's family; trend following data, data points, and the importance of data over a long period of time; the Sharpe Ratio, and why the rest of the investing world has a problem with rejecting it; the importance of pain as a measure; why Chinese investors are more driven by returns, and often agnostic to particular investment strategies; investor optimism; "nimbleness" to new ideas in Chinese culture; and entrepreneurism in Asia and America. Want a free trend following DVD: trendfollowing.com/win.
Michael Covel talks with Harry Dent on today's podcast. Dent studies demographic and historic trends to project major events. Covel and Dent come at trading strategies differently, but see eye to eye on a number of other issues. Covel and Dent discuss how demographics and consumer spending help to determine what might happen tomorrow; "the demographic clip"; "die-ers vs. buyers"; what happens when a smaller generation follows a larger one; zero interest rate policy and asset prices; inflation; how the government keeps the bubble inflated; comparisons to Japan; the forced spending of principal; whether we've lost the ability to have a conversation about the morals of our current policies; real estate speculation; how we've lost direction on the idea of "resets"; the boom-bust cycle; the importance of failure; "coma" economies; early retirement, and why you can't retire at 65; public employee pensions; and why we ultimately need a crisis to secure our future. Want a free trend following DVD: www.trendfollowing.com/win.
Michael Covel has had an interesting week of debate, argument, and discussion on an assortment of topics and he's been looking for a retort. He has allowed everyone to ramble away with their own logical fallacies, anecdotal hocus-pocus, etc. Covel plays a clip from Tom Cruise to illustrate the point of what he's been dealing with: paranoid, fearful, cult-like behavior. So where is Covel going with this? He plays a Samuel L. Jackson clip to show the kind of retort he's looking for. Next, Covel moves into an article that gets at the fact that "we don't even know what we don't know". The article is called "How America's Culture of Hustling is Dark and Empty", and Covel reads excerpts and comments on it. Covel discusses social media; media manipulation; trust; desert island trading; the difference between FOREX trading and other markets; getting away from the herd; knowing that the fundamentals can be faked; fear, power, and desperation. If people are in a trance and sleepwalk through life; if the vast majority of people are zoned out, it's a great opportunity for you. It's a great time to think clearly, because so many people aren't. It's the ultimate opportunity for entrepreneurs, and the ultimate opportunity for trend following trading. Want a free trend following DVD: trendfollowing.com/win.
Michael Covel talks with Jerry Parker on his second visit to the podcast. Parker is a trend following trader with over 25 years of experience. His firm is Chesapeake Capital and he was featured in Covel's book "The Complete TurtleTrader." Among many topics, in a Market Wizards/Charlie Rose interview style, Covel and Parker discuss fitness; the Hindenburg "omen"; objective entry/exit criteria; why you'd stay in a long position that you wouldn't want to enter into today; the "oversleeping" hypothetical; the idea that reducing volatility increases risk; definitions of volatility and risk; Parker's thoughts on trend followers not really having drawdowns in the typical sense; "managed futures" and why investors may not want that vs. "trend following"; definitions of "managed futures" and "trend following"; why managed futures isn't a good term for some. Note: this is the first in a new series with Parker. Free trend following DVD: www.trendfollowing.com/win.
Michael Covel speaks with Rolf Dobelli. Dobelli is a Swiss novelist, writer, and entrepreneur. He's the author of the best-selling "The Art of Thinking Clearly". There can be no greater objective for the population as a whole these days than to think clearly. Covel and Dobelli discuss availability bias; statistics; the sunk cost fallacy; the difficulty of logical thinking; authority bias and outcome bias; process vs. outcome; the irrelevancy and "white noise" of news; information overload; neomania and the obsession with the "new"; Nassim Taleb, outliers, and the black swan; J.P. Morgan, banks, and looking behind the facade; why watching and waiting is torture for people (the action bias); the idea that "the boat matters more than your rowing"; the paradox of choice, closing doors, and settings fire to ships; the "it will get worse before it gets better" fallacy and stop loss; and applying these lessons to daily life. Free trend following DVD: trendfollowing.com/win. Note: I am aware of the Taleb controversy. Two links to consider: http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/dobelli.htm and http://www.dobelli.com/the-taleb-problem.