Today on the podcast, Michael Covel speaks with Sally Hogshead. She’s an American speaker, author, former advertising executive, as well as the Chief Executive Officer of Fascinate, Inc. Hogshead’s newest book is "How The World Sees You: Discover Your Highest Value Through The Science of Fascination". Covel and Hogshead discuss fascination and paying attention; the seven different categories of things that fascinate us; what those who fascinate have in common; developing a personality assessment that shows how the world sees you; understanding your own personal branding; analyzing Michael Covel’s own fascination survey; not being a commodity; why if you’re not generating a negative reaction from someone, you’re probably not fascinating anyone; why you don’t want to be vanilla ice cream. To take the Fascination Advantage test for free, go to howtheworldseesyou.com/you and enter the code “trendfollowing”. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.
Michael Covel speaks with Bucky Isaacson on today’s podcast. Isaacson is one of the early pioneers of managed futures. In 1969, he helped to develop one of the first computerized trading systems. He’s been involved in the managed futures industry ever since, particularly in Asia and the US. Covel and Isaacson talk about the fractured state of conferences these days; what it was like to be involved with a group developing a computerized trading system in 1969; being with one of the earliest incarnations of a managed futures firm; trading attitudes; marketing and doing business in Asia; differences in business practices between Asian countries; Refco, MF Global, PFG and other aberrations that have damaged the Chicago futures brand; Madoff as a marketer; raising the initial capital to start a trading venture; how to differentiate yourself from a marketing perspective; and growth in the managed futures industry. For more information on Bucky Isaacson, visit CTAExpo.com. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.
Michael Covel speaks with Megan McArdle on today’s podcast. McArdle is a Bloomberg View columnist who writes on economics, business and public policy. She is the author of "The Up Side of Down: Why Failing Well Is the Key to Success”. She founded the blog "Asymmetrical Information”. Covel and McArdle discuss “trophy kids” and taking the monkey bars away; the idea of a regulator out there trying to guarantee our safety; why the companies that make it aren’t the ones with the best strategic plan--it’s the ones that execute (and fail well); the power of experimentation; Nobel winner Vernon Smith and experimentation; the idea of learning in crisis; how sunk costs are difficult for a large part of the population to grasp; Van Halen, errors, and M&M’s; normative error; small, manageable risks; forager morality vs. farmer morality; and a story about Kentucky Fried Chicken (KFC). Megan McArdle can be found on Twitter at @asymmetricinfo. Want a free trend following DVD: trendfollowing.com/win.
Michael Covel speaks with Cullen Roche. Roche is the founder of Orcam Financial Group, a financial services company based out of San Diego. He also runs a very well-known blog called Pragmatic Capitalism (pragcap.com). His new book, Pragmatic Capitalism, was just released. Roche takes apart the soundbites of the media and gets at how things really work. Covel and Roche talk about entrepreneurism; investing in yourself; the advantages of starting a blog; why the word “pragmatic” is a word that has become central to Roche’s universe; eliminating your biases; why the US going bankrupt is a myth; the myth that central banks exist to enrich bankers; Dr. Laurie Santos and her work with monkeys; bringing risk down to something we can measure; Warren Buffett; and hedging your bets. For more information on Cullen Roche, visit pragcap.com. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.
Today on the podcast, Michael Covel speaks with Mike Harris. Harris is President of Campbell & Company (3B AUM), the systematic trading firm started by Keith Campbell (Campbell was featured in Covel’s first book Trend Following). Covel and Harris discuss systematic trading in the early 70’s; education about managed futures; correlation with other markets and managers; trading diverse markets; focusing on data rather than the fundamentals; why “commodities” and “CTA” are misnomers; why Harris wouldn’t fly down to Brazil to investigate fundamental information on the coffee market; risk management, drawdowns, and taking small losses; dealing with uncertainty and helping clients to understand the uncertain nature of trading; how human emotion often gets in the way of profitable trading; the efficient market hypothesis and behavioral finance; continuity and how that has been thought through at Campbell & Company; the Sharpe ratio and why it isn’t the best way to look at systematic traders; and why being defensive is central to being a great absolute return trader. For more information on Campbell & Company, visit campbell.com. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.
Today on the show, Michael Covel speaks with Tyler Cowen. Cowen is an American economist, academic, and writer. He’s the co-author of the popular economics blog Marginal Revolution. Covel and Cowen discuss Sabermetrics and the new idea that we will be judged by numbers; Cowen’s early experience studying under Nobel Prize winner Thomas Schelling; the notion of thinking in terms of paradoxes; why we’re moving from the 1% to the 15%; “average is over” and why Singapore and Israel are the two places in the world where this has come true first; problems because of “average is over” in Singapore; pure free markets; thinking about why past regulations have failed; how computers change us; globalization, where things are headed, and what we should be prepared for; zero marginal product workers. For more information on Tyler Cowen, go to marginalrevolution.com. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.
Michael Covel speaks with William Poundstone. Poundstone is the author of Fortune’s Formula, a book about the Kelly criterion. This is risk management at its heart. All great trend traders have had to deal with Kelly. Covel and Poundstone discuss Claude Shannon; the connection between Al Capone, the Kelly formula, bookmaking, and the telephone industry; Bell Labs and information theory; why, when betting, if there’s a small chance of losing everything, you will eventually lose everything; criticisms of the Kelly criterion; Ed Thorp, blackjack, and card counting; Long-Term Capital Management; Martingale vs. Kelly; and early development of the Black-Scholes formula. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.
Today on the podcast Michael Covel speaks with Perry Kaufman. Kaufman is an American systematic trader, index developer, and quantitative financial theorist. He is considered a leading expert in the development of fully algorithmic trading programs. Covel and Kaufman discuss how Kaufman came to the idea of 100% algorithmic trading systems; the difference between being systematic and being automated; optimization vs. validation; the biggest advantages of testing; why discretion is not part of Kaufman’s toolbox; the problem of tail events; why discipline is the most important characteristic of a systematic trader; the “loose pants fit everyone” philosophy; preparing yourself for uncertainty; comparisons between risk management and risk measurement; the Sharpe ratio; high volatility trades vs. low volatility; why Kaufman places equal weight on both risk management and the underlying system; and systematic trading in established mature markets vs. emerging markets. For more information on Perry Kaufman, visit Amphi Capital. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.