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Trend Following with Michael Covel

Bestselling author Michael Covel is the host of Trend Following Radio with 5 million listens. Investments, economics, decision-making, human behavior & entrepreneurship--all passionately explored. Guests include Nobel Prize winners Robert Aumann, Angus Deaton, Daniel Kahneman, Harry Markowitz & Vernon Smith. Also: James Altucher, Dan Ariely, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Kathleen Eisenhardt, Marc Faber, Tim Ferriss, Jason Fried, Gerd Gigerenzer, Larry Hite, Sally Hogshead, Ryan Holiday, Jack Horner, Ewan Kirk, Steven Kotler, Michael Mauboussin, Tucker Max, Barry Ritholtz, Jim Rogers, Jack Schwager, Ed Seykota, Philip Tetlock & Walter Williams. All 500+ eps at www.trendfollowingradio.com/rss.
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Now displaying: December, 2014

Bestselling author Michael Covel is the host of Trend Following Radio with 5 million listens. Investments, economics, decision-making, human behavior & entrepreneurship--all passionately explored. Guests include Nobel Prize winners Robert Aumann, Angus Deaton, Daniel Kahneman, Harry Markowitz & Vernon Smith. Also: James Altucher, Dan Ariely, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Kathleen Eisenhardt, Marc Faber, Tim Ferriss, Jason Fried, Gerd Gigerenzer, Larry Hite, Sally Hogshead, Ryan Holiday, Jack Horner, Ewan Kirk, Steven Kotler, Michael Mauboussin, Tucker Max, Barry Ritholtz, Jim Rogers, Jack Schwager, Ed Seykota, Philip Tetlock & Walter Williams. All 500+ eps at www.trendfollowingradio.com/rss.

Dec 29, 2014

Michael Covel speaks with Mark Manson on today’s podcast. Manson is an author and personal development consultant. Manson has worked with thousands of people from over 20 countries and his writing offers a different take on the self-help genre. Manson calls it “self help from a first person perspective”. He has sold over 15,000 copies of his book “Models: Attract Women Through Honesty” and almost 400,000 people read his site each month. He’s been published and quoted on CNN, Huffington Post, Business Insider, Yahoo! News, The Sydney Morning Herald and a variety of other publications. He is also the CEO and Founder of Infinity Squared Media LLC. Covel and Manson discuss why people are such ass----- on the internet; internet communication vs. real world communication; becoming desensitized to the internet; how Manson came to his entrepreneurial path and how he was inspired by “The 4-Hour Workweek”; location independence and how travel has changed Manson; consumerism in America; having an excess of choice in your life; the type of business Manson has developed and why it’s been successful; why certain approaches to dating aren't emotionally healthy; our bias against performers; and why Manson refers to himself as “self-help for people who don’t like self-help”. For more information on Mark Manson, visit markmanson.net. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Dec 26, 2014

Michael Covel digs into the epic 2014 crude oil plunge and the profits that have followed (from the drop!). In breaking apart the issue Covel quotes Byron Wien, the Vice Chairman of Blackstone, on his oil predictions. What good is a prediction if it’s not even close to reality? If Wien can’t predict the price of oil how can the average investor? It’s that simple. Covel adds into the discussion the importance of cutting your losses, and why all successful traders do so. Building on taking a loss, Covel opens up catastrophic loss "imagination". Can you imagine a 75% drop in the stock market? Don’t be caught like the fundamental guys with no plan. Prepare for it. Covel also discusses why having a system means not having to be "definite"; having an approach based on the fact that you don’t know what is going to happen next; and why trend following has been buried in the mainstream media. The oil plunge in 2014 has been historic and offers a great example of trend following success in action. Would you like a free trend following DVD? Go to www.trendfollowing.com/win.

Dec 22, 2014

Michael Covel speaks with Charles Faulkner today on the podcast. Faulkner is an author, trader, and an expert on modeling the knowledge and performance of exceptional individuals. He was originally featured in "The New Market Wizards" by Jack Schwager. Covel and Faulkner discuss the notion of fictional people and why famous figures in finance are “fictional”; the importance of narratives, stories, and metaphors; the halo effect and deluding ourselves; the difference between a story and a strategy; the nature of independent thinking; herd behavior; ego, ignorance, and authority; the five different types of minds: the experiencing mind, the imaginative mind, the reasoning mind, the reflective mind, and the generative mind; system one and system two; why words don’t change people but experience does; experience base and the difference between amateur and professional traders; the two kinds of market wizards; language in the context of the five different types of minds; the importance of asking “how” does the market work over “why”; the importance of luck and time in the case of Warren Buffett; why you shouldn’t get your excitement from trading. For more information on Charles Faulkner, visit charlesfaulkner.com. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Dec 19, 2014

Today on the podcast, Michael Covel speaks with Zbigniew Hermaszewski & Natasha Reeve-Gray, two of the four founding partners of Altis Partners--a very successful systematic and primarily trend following money management firm. Covel, Hermaszewski, and Reeve-Gray discuss Covel’s recent experiences traveling in Asia; the advantages of location independence; early triggers that led Hermaszewski and Reeve-Gray into the systematic trading world and away from the efficient market hypothesis; why Hermaszewskii was motivated to go down the particular path he went down; the advantages of a physics background when applied to trading; looking for predicability in the markets; how Altis uses predictability in the context of their world; the four broad types of market behavior in Altis’ program; trend following and persistence; inter-market relationships; why there are no “manual” inputs in Altis’ systematic program; portfolio construction and why Altis is different from its peers; applying the same models to all markets; and the collegial atmosphere amongst London CTAs. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Dec 15, 2014

Michael Covel speaks with Jim Rogers on today’s podcast. Rogers is an American businessman, investor and author currently based in Singapore. He is the Chairman of Rogers Holdings and Beeland Interests, Inc. He was the co-founder of the Quantum Fund and creator of the Rogers International Commodities Index (RICI). Rogers does not consider himself a member of any school of economic thought, but has acknowledged that his views best fit the label of Austrian School of economics. Covel gives some of his personal history with Rogers, noting that he also first read about him in the Market Wizards book. Covel also notes that Rogers’ Investment Biker book inspired him to travel. Covel joins Rogers for an in-person conversation from Singapore. They discuss why it shows that the kind of people that travel are the kind of people you want in your country; infrastructure in China; stereotypes of various countries in Asia; China’s military; current Fed policy in America; what “can-do” spirit can do in a state of decline; why the next crisis might be worse than the last; the importance of language skills; participating in big long-term bets with regard to countries; and why, if he could, Rogers would put all of his money into North Korea. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Dec 12, 2014

Michael Covel presents a monologue and interviews Travis Jamison on today’s podcast. To start Covel reflects on the first 300 episodes of his podcast. He talks the start of the podcast, key guests and the overall uniqueness of the show. Covel also discusses massive September 2014 trend following performance, whether you can time the top, survivorship bias and the trend following is dead crowd. Next Covel talks with Travis Jamison. Jamison is the founder of Supremacy SEO. He’s a passionate entrepreneur, and a man known for high-level search engine optimization (SEO) chops. Covel and Jamison discuss search in general and search engine optimization; how the fascination with search triggered with Jamison; the idea of manipulation; Google and a monopoly, and some of the competition; Google’s dominance; Google’s definition of “quality”; the EPIC browser; the mindset of being honest on the internet; black hat and grey hat; Google’s penalties, and what can happen when you go too far; if there’s any recovery after being penalized by Google; competitors affecting SEO; Panda, Penguin, and Hummingbird: some of the Google updates; what the future might hold for search. For more information on Travis Jamison, visit supremacyseo.com. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Dec 8, 2014

Michael Covel speaks with Scot Billington and Jon Boorman on today’s podcast. Scot Billington is one of the managers of Covenant Capital along with Brince Wilford. Billington is the Chief Manager, Head Trader, and is responsible for all system development at Covenant. Covel and Billington discuss his firm’s exceptional performance in September of 2014; why low volume and low volatility tend to be accompanied by low returns; whether all of Billington’s trend following trading is predicated on a weekly system; Billington’s background and what got him into the systematic trend following space; why simplicity is the ultimate sophistication; marketing vs. trading reality; why certain investors try and disguise their trend following strategies as something else; why trend following is one of the most repeatable, teachable strateges; why the world still believes in the efficient market hypothesis; why trends continue to emerge as a function of the marketplace; the idea of a barbell strategy; and why upside volatility is not such a bad thing. Next, Covel talks with Jon Boorman in his second visit to the podcast. Boorman is the President and CEO of Broadsword Capital, LLC, a Registered Investment Adviser in Charlotte, NC. Boorman has spent over two decades in global markets, witnessing first-hand some of the most tumultuous periods in financial history. Boorman started the Alpha Capture blog in January 2013 to keep a record of trading signals and market commentary, and demonstrate to a wider audience what could be achieved through trend following. The primary aim has always been to inform and educate. Covel and Boorman discuss the fear of public speaking; the idea of ego in the context of both trend following and buy & hold systems; why you’d seek to minimize rather than eliminate both ego and emotion in the context of trading; how Boorman and Jerry Parker connected and Parker’s early influence on Boorman; both Parker and Boorman’s views on exit strategies; how Twitter changes the level of access we have to each other; whether Boorman’s RIA might move into a fund structure; and process vs. outcome. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Dec 5, 2014

Michael Covel speaks with Emanuel Derman on today’s podcast. Derman is a South African-born businessman and writer, best known as a quantitative analyst. His books include My Life As A Quant: Reflections on Physics and Finance as well as Models Behaving Badly. Derman is a Columbia University professor and formerly at Goldman Sachs. Covel and Derman discuss why economics can be an 'incestuous' field; economics as a moral science; why all four of the US investment banks were not allowed to go by the wayside; Derman’s background and his PhD in theoretical physics; Derman’s early eye-opening experiences at Goldman Sachs; model building, and how Derman was indoctrinated into the world of model building; the financial model and science and the physics model and science; short volatility models vs. long volatility models; how one estimates risk; models vs. theories; whether Derman finds a certain amount of pushback from others in the academic community. For more information on Emanuel Derman, visit emanuelderman.com. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Dec 1, 2014

Michael Covel speaks with Gabriel Oettingen on today’s podcast. Gabriele Oettingen is a Professor of Psychology at New York University and the University of Hamburg. Her research focuses on how we think about the future, and how this impacts cognition, emotion, and behavior. Her first book is called Rethinking Positive Thinking. This is an interesting conversation for Covel--Oettingen is looking at data, just like traders would, but she is looking at data on motivation and positive thinking. Is too much positive thinking a problem? It can be. Is there a way to go about thinking about the future, and thinking positively? Oettingen has a framework and structure that can help us all. Covel and Oettingen discuss positive thinking, optimism and over-confidence; how positive thinking can reign in your sense of urgency; the effect of positive thinking on us from a scientific viewpoint; whether Oettingen views her work as an attack on the self-help industry; Oettingen’s process and how she views data; the WOOP (Wish, Outcome, Obstacle, Plan) process; understanding each component part of WOOP; “ah-ha” moments in Oettingen’s early development; the idea of WOOP as mental contrasting; non-conscious processes. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

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