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Trend Following with Michael Covel

Bestselling author Michael Covel is the host of Trend Following Radio with 7+ million listens. Investments, economics, decision-making, human behavior & entrepreneurship--all passionately explored. Guests include Nobel Prize winners Robert Aumann, Angus Deaton, Daniel Kahneman, Harry Markowitz & Vernon Smith. Also: James Altucher, Dan Ariely, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Kathleen Eisenhardt, Marc Faber, Tim Ferriss, Jason Fried, Gerd Gigerenzer, Larry Hite, Sally Hogshead, Ryan Holiday, Jack Horner, Ewan Kirk, Steven Kotler, Michael Mauboussin, Tucker Max, Barry Ritholtz, Jim Rogers, Jack Schwager, Ed Seykota, Philip Tetlock & Walter Williams. All 600+ eps at www.trendfollowing.com/podcast.
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Now displaying: January, 2018

Bestselling author Michael Covel is the host of Trend Following Radio with 7+ million listens. Investments, economics, decision-making, human behavior & entrepreneurship--all passionately explored. Guests include Nobel Prize winners Robert Aumann, Angus Deaton, Daniel Kahneman, Harry Markowitz & Vernon Smith. Also: James Altucher, Dan Ariely, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Kathleen Eisenhardt, Marc Faber, Tim Ferriss, Jason Fried, Gerd Gigerenzer, Larry Hite, Sally Hogshead, Ryan Holiday, Jack Horner, Ewan Kirk, Steven Kotler, Michael Mauboussin, Tucker Max, Barry Ritholtz, Jim Rogers, Jack Schwager, Ed Seykota, Philip Tetlock & Walter Williams. All 600+ eps at trendfollowingradio.com/rss.

Jan 29, 2018

Do you buy and hold Bitcoin? For those who have held on through the turbulence it has turned out well–so far. Michael reads a lively blog post from a few years back regarding the right way to trade, the wrong way to trade and all the emotions people feel in-between. Michael breaks the post apart with commentary.

Jan 26, 2018

Charles Faulkner is back on the podcast today. Faulkner is an author, trader, and international expert on modeling the knowledge and performance of exceptional individuals. He was originally featured in “The New Market Wizards” by Jack Schwager. Faulkner has had one of the most popular podcasts on Trend Following Radio. His new work is centered on deciphering the complicated from the complex.

Warren Buffett recently said, “In terms of crypto currencies, generally, I can say with almost certainty that they will come to a bad ending. When it happens or how or anything else, I don’t know.” What does Faulkner make of Buffett’s prediction?

With all this new technology and language most will turn to others for advice. Unfortunately, there are a lot of fortune tellers pushing agendas. The idea of forecasting is to make people move. It is a way of getting people into action and doing things they would never do if they knew the truth. “Why can’t the magical thinkers be accurate?” Charles points out that unfortunately fortune tellers will be right some of the time and “reasoning by resemblance” is a common fallback trap for people.

How should you go about navigating this complexity? Complex and complicated are two very different things and the ability to identify what situation you are in requires a high level of thinking. Complicated situations or problems can be solved by asking a knowledgeable person for advice, reading a book, watching a YouTube video, etc. Complex scenarios take trial and error.

Still not sure if something is complicated or complex? Uncertainty is one quality of complex systems. It has non-linear causes and effects. Some little action can have huge ramifications. In the same way, it takes huge amounts of effort and money to change complex situations, for example: healthcare, opioids epidemic, etc. People frequently think that if they just have more information, different information or a smarter “guy” that they would be better off. Unfortunately, when you are in a complex situation, standard rules don’t apply.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Forecasting
  • The rise of magical thinking
  • Reasoning by resemblance
  • Network theory
  • Power laws
  • Crypto currency
  • Complicated vs. Complex vs. Chaos
Jan 22, 2018

Michael reaches back and brings on three authors from the archives with three great books: Fascinate, Simple Rules and Visual Intelligence.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Sally Hogshead on Fascination
  • Kathleen Eisenhardt on Simple Rules
  • Amy Herman on Visual Intelligence
Jan 19, 2018

Cognitive dissonance is everywhere. Michael quotes from an article by Alwyn Lau titled “Quick to Attack and Condemn: Why We do It.” Trumps presidency has produced arguably the greatest case of cognitive dissonance in history.

Many cognitive dissonance with the markets. What is the best way to counter cognitive dissonance? Take a minute, stop, and look for an alternative explanation. Stop hallucinating and start studying. Read perspectives from both sides and educate yourself.

Staying attached to news and breaking headlines only feeds the problem. Are you in cognitive dissonance about markets? Politics? Have you given yourself a back test?

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Cognitive dissonance
  • Donald Trump
  • Fact checking
  • Bitcoin
  • Breaking news
Jan 15, 2018

“The Edge… there is no honest way to explain it because the only people who really know where it is are the ones who have gone over.” –Hunter S. Thompson

Taking the lead from Thompson...Michael goes in search of the edge.

Jan 12, 2018

Ben Hardy started blogging in May of 2015 and in just under three years has gained over 300,000 email subscribers and become the most followed writer on Medium.com. Ben is also just a few months away from his PHD in organizational psychology at age 29. His three foster children, as well as personal experiences, inspired his new book, “Willpower Doesn’t Work: Discover the Hidden Keys to Success.”

Ben sees willpower as a fight against the natural environment and consequentially, a losing battle. Getting out of typical environments helps to see things from the outside and remove yourself from the echo chamber of mass society. Experiencing emotion, both good and bad, is also important. Finding a sacred space that triggers good emotions is important to mix into daily routine – a place to go everyday that re-centers you, and you look forward to going.

How does Ben have time to write new articles, with great content, and continue growing his following? We live in an information world and having the right writing skills can help grow a business immensely. He is a big proponent of re-purposing evergreen material. Also, learning how to structure content and write headlines are some of the quickest ways to see boosts in traffic. Lastly, publishing your content on the right platforms is key. The three websites Ben believes provide the best opportunity for you to see massive growth are all covered in this great conversation.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Western and eastern philosophy
  • Getting out of your environment
  • Sacred space
  • Morning routines
  • Squeeze page
Jan 5, 2018

George Anders is a New York Times best selling author and journalist who has written for national publications spanning over 30 years. He shared a Pulitzer Prize for National Reporting in 1997, while at The Wall Street Journal. Michael is a huge fan of George’s classic, “Merchants of Debt” published in 1992. His most recent work is “You Can Do Anything: The Surprising Power of ‘Useless’ Liberal Arts Education.”

“You Can Do Anything” shows how humanizing technology has become one of the fastest growing jobs. 6% of technology jobs are programmer based with the other 94% being human relations based. Social media, branding, psychology, etc.–they have nothing to do with coding but are just as essential to running a successful technology based company. George gives one example of an exceptional sales person he met who happened to be an English major. He sat beside her and witnessed first hand why she was so exceptional at selling – it was how she talked to people and fostered relationships with customers over the phone. You don’t need a business degree to sell. You just need an intuitive social way of talking with people and making your customer feel comfortable. Building a successful company takes a combination of tech savvy and psychology.

Having the confidence and audacity to take a risk and reach out to some of the highest achievers in a field of your interest could be your greatest chance at a dream job. To be the best you learn from the best and you won’t get very far if you are shy about it. George also stresses that no matter what your major was in college (or if you even went to college), it is important to know that you can go in any direction with a career path. Michael and George end the podcast talking about climbing Mt. Fuji. George describes the gorgeous landscape, scenery, and a mistake he made that anyone following in his footsteps should avoid.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Confidence in business
  • Journalism
  • Targeted marketing
  • Mark Zuckerberg
  • Alumni connections
  • Audacity
  • Persuasion
  • E-books
  • The explorers spirit
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