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Trend Following with Michael Covel

Bestselling author Michael Covel is the host of Trend Following Radio with 8+ million listens. Investments, economics, decision-making, human behavior & entrepreneurship--all passionately explored. Guests include Nobel Prize winners Robert Aumann, Angus Deaton, Daniel Kahneman, Harry Markowitz & Vernon Smith. Also: James Altucher, Dan Ariely, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Kathleen Eisenhardt, Marc Faber, Tim Ferriss, Jason Fried, Gerd Gigerenzer, Larry Hite, Sally Hogshead, Ryan Holiday, Jack Horner, Ewan Kirk, Steven Kotler, Michael Mauboussin, Tucker Max, Barry Ritholtz, Jim Rogers, Jack Schwager, Ed Seykota, Philip Tetlock & Walter Williams. All 800+ eps at www.trendfollowing.com/podcast.
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Now displaying: April, 2020

Bestselling author Michael Covel is the host of Trend Following Radio with 8+ million listens. Investments, economics, decision-making, human behavior & entrepreneurship--all passionately explored. Guests include Nobel Prize winners Robert Aumann, Angus Deaton, Daniel Kahneman, Harry Markowitz & Vernon Smith. Also: James Altucher, Dan Ariely, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Kathleen Eisenhardt, Marc Faber, Tim Ferriss, Jason Fried, Gerd Gigerenzer, Larry Hite, Sally Hogshead, Ryan Holiday, Jack Horner, Ewan Kirk, Steven Kotler, Michael Mauboussin, Tucker Max, Barry Ritholtz, Jim Rogers, Jack Schwager, Ed Seykota, Philip Tetlock & Walter Williams. All 800+ eps at trendfollowingradio.com/rss.

Apr 27, 2020

Mike Dever is a trader and investor. He was also episode number one on this podcast!

Mike has been on the front line of investment innovation and trading for more than 30 years. His firm, Brandywine Asset Management, has produced top-ranked returns for its clients that are uncorrelated to all conventional investment benchmarks. His out-of-the-box thinking, innovative investment philosophy and investment success have made him a featured subject of three books, “Bulls, Bears and Millionaires,” “Market Beaters” and “The Investor’s Guide to Hedge Funds.”

Mike was driven to write his book “Jackass Investing” in 1999, after seeing the fever instilled in people at the peak of that great U.S. stock market bubble. But writing the book took a back seat until the financial crisis of 2008 demanded its completion. Today, Mike devotes his time to running Brandywine Asset Management, which follows his Return Driver based methodology to trade broadly diversified portfolios in the global currency, interest rate, stock index, metals, energy and agricultural markets.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Depression
  • Corona Crisis
  • Entrepreneurial Attitude
  • US Equities
  • Globally Diversified Return Driver based Trading
  • Portfolio
  • Global Markets
  • Alpha Hedge Strategy
Apr 24, 2020

What are you really missing out on?

You’re home on a Friday night, scrolling through Instagram, ready to go to bed.

You see pictures on your timeline of a party you were invited to, but didn’t go to. You were confident when you said no, but now you can’t stop thinking about it, and you start feeling worse.

You have FOMO, or, Fear of Missing Out.

Coined in a Harvard Business School article, FOMO has become a global term to describe the decimating anxiety when thinking other people are having better, more fulfilling, experiences than you are. It’s a natural, biological response, but that doesn’t make it feel any better. Amplified by the rise of social media, #FOMO has become a cultural crisis―so what’s the cure?

Patrick McGinnis, creator of the term FOMO, has been thinking about it for seventeen years―and he has a solution: decision-making. Learning to weigh the costs and benefits of your choices, prioritizing your decisions, and listening to your gut are central to silencing FOMO and its lesser-known cousin, FOBO: Fear of a Better Option. After all, don’t you want to feel comfortable and confident in your decisions?

Bio: Patrick J. McGinnis is a venture capitalist and private equity investor who founded Dirigo Advisors, after a decade on Wall Street, to provide strategic advice to investors, entrepreneurs, and fast-growing businesses.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Overwhelming Choice
  • Decision-making
  • Fear of a Better Option (FOBO)
  • Fear of Missing Out (FOMO)
  • Social Theory at HBS: McGinnis’ Two FOs
Apr 20, 2020

A Pandemic Attitude for Winning with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Apr 17, 2020

How much is a human life worth? Individuals, families, companies, and governments routinely place a price on human life. The calculations that underlie these price tags are often buried in technical language, yet they influence our economy, laws, behaviors, policies, health, and safety.

These price tags are often unfair, infused as they are with gender, racial, national, and cultural biases that often result in valuing the lives of the young more than the old, the rich more than the poor, whites more than blacks, Americans more than foreigners, and relatives more than strangers. This is critical since undervalued lives are left less-protected and more exposed to risk.

Howard Steven Friedman explains in simple terms how economists and data scientists at corporations, regulatory agencies, and insurance companies develop and use these price tags and points a spotlight at their logical flaws and limitations. He then argues against the rampant unfairness in the system. Readers will be enlightened, shocked, and, ultimately, empowered to confront the price tags we assign to human lives and understand why such calculations matter.

Bio: Howard Steven Friedman is a statistician and health economist for the United Nations. He has worked with major organizations including UNICEF, the World Bank, the World Health Organization, UNFPA, UNAIDS, UNDP, and UNESCO. He is also an adjunct professor at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • The Value of Human Life
  • Inequity and Inequality
  • Public Health System
  • Post-9/11
  • September 11th Victim Compensation Fund
  • Boston Marathon bombings
  • Stop and Frisk Program
Apr 13, 2020

A Trend Following Flashback with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Apr 10, 2020

I continue to have the good fortune to have the great minds on this show. Today, Author Jack Canfield joins me to talk principles for success.

In The Success Principles, the cocreator of the phenomenal bestselling Chicken Soup for the Soul series, helps you get from where you are to where you want to be, teaching you how to increase your confidence, tackle daily challenges, live with passion and purpose, and realize all your ambitions. Filled with memorable and inspiring stories of CEO’s, world-class athletes, celebrities, and everyday people, it spells out the 64 timeless principles used by successful men and women throughout history—proven principles and strategies that can be adapted for your own life, whether you want to be the best salesperson in your company, become a leading architect, score top grades in school, lose weight, buy your dream home, make millions, or just get back in the job market. Taken together and practiced every day, these principles will change your life beyond your wildest dreams.

Bio: Jack Canfield is co-creator of the Chicken Soup for the Soul® series, which includes forty New York Times bestsellers, and coauthor of The Success Principles: How to Get from Where You Are to Where You Want to Be. He is a leader in the field of personal transformation and peak performance and is currently CEO of the Canfield Training Group and Founder and Chairman of the Board of The Foundation for Self-Esteem. An internationally renowned corporate trainer and keynote speaker, he lives in Santa Barbara, California.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Forgiveness
  • Self Empowerment
  • Motivation
  • Temple of Golden Buddha
  • Creativity
Apr 6, 2020

Today on Trend Following Radio, Michael Covel interviews Steve Blank. The interview was inspired by Steve’s “The Virus Survival Strategy For Your Startup.” Steve offers: “It’s no longer business as usual for the rest of the economy. In fact, shutting down the economy for a pandemic has never happened. Millions of jobs may be lost in the next few months, as entire industries get devastated, something not seen since the Great Depression of 1929-39. I hope that I’m very wrong, but the impact of this virus social and economic effects are likely to be profound, and will change how we shop, travel and work for years.”

Biography: Eight-time entrepreneur-turned-educator Steve Blank is credited with launching the Lean Startup movement. He’s changed how startups are built, how entrepreneurship is taught, how science is commercialized, and how companies and the government innovate. Recognized as a thought leader on startups and innovation, Steve was named one of the Thinkers50 top management thinkers and recognized by the Harvard Business Review as one of 12 Masters of Innovation.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Virus Survival Strategy for your Startup
  • COVID-19 affecting the Economics
  • 1st Engineered Economic Downturn
  • Social Distancing
  • Great Depression
  • The ripple and feedback effect
Apr 3, 2020

You might imagine that an effective leader is someone who makes quick, intelligent decisions, gives inspiring speeches, and issues clear orders to their team so they can execute a plan to achieve your organization’s goals. Unfortunately, David Marquet argues, that’s an outdated model of leadership that just doesn’t work anymore.

As a leader in today’s networked, information-dense business climate, you don’t have full visibility into your organization or the ground reality of your operating environment. In order to harness the eyes, ears, and minds of your people, you need to foster a climate of collaborative experimentation that encourages people to speak up when they notice problems and work together to identify and test solutions.

Too many leaders fall in love with the sound of their own voice, and wind up dictating plans and digging in their heels when problems begin to emerge. Even when you want to be a more collaborative leader, you can undermine your own efforts by defaulting to command-and-control language we’ve inherited from the industrial era.

It’s time to ditch the industrial age playbook of leadership. In Leadership is Language, you’ll learn how choosing your words can dramatically improve decision-making and execution on your team. Marquet outlines six plays for all leaders, anchored in how you use language:

  • Control the clock, don’t obey the clock: Pre-plan decision points and give your people the tools they need to hit pause on a plan of action if they notice something wrong.
  • Collaborate, don’t coerce: As the leader, you should be the last one to offer your opinion. Rather than locking your team into binary responses (“Is this a good plan?”), allow them to answer on a scale (“How confident are you about this plan?”)
  • Commit, don’t comply: Rather than expect your team to comply with specific directions, explain your overall goals, and get their commitment to achieving it one piece at a time.
  • Complete, not continue: If every day feels like a repetition of the last, you’re doing something wrong. Articulate concrete plans with a start and end date to align your team.
  • Improve, don’t prove: Ask your people to improve on plans and processes, rather than prove that they can meet fixed goals or deadlines. You’ll face fewer cut corners and better long-term results.
  • Connect, don’t conform: Flatten hierarchies in your organization and connect with your people to encourage them to contribute to decision-making.

Biography: L. David Marquet (Captain, US Navy-Retired), a top graduate of the US Naval Academy, commanded the nuclear-powered, fast-attack submarine USS Santa Fe from 1999 to 2001. Since leaving the Navy, he has worked with businesses nationwide as a leadership consultant. He also teaches graduate-level leadership at Columbia University.

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