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Trend Following with Michael Covel

Bestselling author Michael Covel is the host of Trend Following Radio with 7+ million listens. Investments, economics, decision-making, human behavior & entrepreneurship--all passionately explored. Guests include Nobel Prize winners Robert Aumann, Angus Deaton, Daniel Kahneman, Harry Markowitz & Vernon Smith. Also: James Altucher, Dan Ariely, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Kathleen Eisenhardt, Marc Faber, Tim Ferriss, Jason Fried, Gerd Gigerenzer, Larry Hite, Sally Hogshead, Ryan Holiday, Jack Horner, Ewan Kirk, Steven Kotler, Michael Mauboussin, Tucker Max, Barry Ritholtz, Jim Rogers, Jack Schwager, Ed Seykota, Philip Tetlock & Walter Williams. All 600+ eps at www.trendfollowing.com/podcast.
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Bestselling author Michael Covel is the host of Trend Following Radio with 7+ million listens. Investments, economics, decision-making, human behavior & entrepreneurship--all passionately explored. Guests include Nobel Prize winners Robert Aumann, Angus Deaton, Daniel Kahneman, Harry Markowitz & Vernon Smith. Also: James Altucher, Dan Ariely, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Kathleen Eisenhardt, Marc Faber, Tim Ferriss, Jason Fried, Gerd Gigerenzer, Larry Hite, Sally Hogshead, Ryan Holiday, Jack Horner, Ewan Kirk, Steven Kotler, Michael Mauboussin, Tucker Max, Barry Ritholtz, Jim Rogers, Jack Schwager, Ed Seykota, Philip Tetlock & Walter Williams. All 600+ eps at trendfollowingradio.com/rss.

Sep 19, 2013

Today on the podcast, Michael Covel discusses certainty and uncertainty. When it comes to tomorrow, Covel is majorly uncertain. He doesn't know what's going to happen. He can think of the worst case scenarios, though; a Stoic tradition. Many people today figure the crisis of '08 was a few years back, the Fed has everything figured out, and the stock market is at all time highs. There's nothing to be worried about. Covel reads several quotes to start off the podcast, from Gilda Radner and Richard P. Feynman. Covel questions why most investors don't think like this, and notes that 59% of US investors believe the markets can be predicted. Covel discusses the trend following mindset in contrast, and moves on to talk about Ray Dalio and his 100% systematic trading strategy based on fundamentals. But how do you know when you have enough fundamental data to make a decision? How do you account for the remaining uncertainty? Covel explores. Next, Covel talks about using simple heuristics to make decisions. The simplest factor to follow is the price. That's the only thing you can be certain about. So if you can make decisions off price movement, and use that as a simple heuristic for your buying and selling decisions, you might have something that works for dealing with market uncertainty. From a trend following perspective, simple heuristics is all about trading the price. Free DVD: www.trendfollowing.com/win.

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