Michael Covel speaks with Thomas Gilovich. Gilovich is a professor of psychology at Cornell. He is an expert on behavioral economics and decision making. Covel and Gilovich discuss how his world dovetailed into money and markets; basketball, streak shooting, and the “hot hand”; randomness and the clustering illusion; the missing Malaysian Airlines flight and probability; the reluctance to accept a probabilistic view of the world; politics, predictions, and probabilities; people who see the world in black and white; drawing conclusions from incomplete and unrepresentative evidence, and how to avoid that folly; the position of the devil’s advocate, and the importance of that role; Gilovich’s response to the media’s talking heads, and their often black and white opinions; behavioral economics vs. traditional economics; when people do the wrong thing because the public demands it; Bill James and the closer; instinct vs. considered judgment and test taking; irrationality in financial markets and bubbles; loss aversion; and why you don’t need to be better than the market. More information on Thomas Gilovich can be found at psych.cornell.edu/people/thomas-gilovich. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.