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Trend Following with Michael Covel

Bestselling author Michael Covel is the host of Trend Following Radio with 8+ million listens. Investments, economics, decision-making, human behavior & entrepreneurship--all passionately explored. Guests include Nobel Prize winners Robert Aumann, Angus Deaton, Daniel Kahneman, Harry Markowitz & Vernon Smith. Also: James Altucher, Dan Ariely, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Kathleen Eisenhardt, Marc Faber, Tim Ferriss, Jason Fried, Gerd Gigerenzer, Larry Hite, Sally Hogshead, Ryan Holiday, Jack Horner, Ewan Kirk, Steven Kotler, Michael Mauboussin, Tucker Max, Barry Ritholtz, Jim Rogers, Jack Schwager, Ed Seykota, Philip Tetlock & Walter Williams. All 800+ eps at www.trendfollowing.com/podcast.
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Bestselling author Michael Covel is the host of Trend Following Radio with 8+ million listens. Investments, economics, decision-making, human behavior & entrepreneurship--all passionately explored. Guests include Nobel Prize winners Robert Aumann, Angus Deaton, Daniel Kahneman, Harry Markowitz & Vernon Smith. Also: James Altucher, Dan Ariely, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Kathleen Eisenhardt, Marc Faber, Tim Ferriss, Jason Fried, Gerd Gigerenzer, Larry Hite, Sally Hogshead, Ryan Holiday, Jack Horner, Ewan Kirk, Steven Kotler, Michael Mauboussin, Tucker Max, Barry Ritholtz, Jim Rogers, Jack Schwager, Ed Seykota, Philip Tetlock & Walter Williams. All 800+ eps at trendfollowingradio.com/rss.

Dec 28, 2018

Harold de Boer is a trend following legend with a consistent track record dating back to the 1980’s. His approach to the markets can be seen as, “A farmer’s common sense and mathematics while at the same time never losing sight of the underlying fundamentals.” He is currently managing director and the architect of the Diversified Trend Program, responsible for research & development, portfolio management and trading at Transtrend–with over $4 billion under management.

Harold learned statistics on the farm and has found that a lot of what is seen in markets has a analogy associated with farm life. As he was finishing up college one of his final assignments was to find a real life problem that could be fixed by using his knowledge in statistics. He contacted a commodity trading firm who had a project from him to look at relationships between meats (i.e. pork and beef) and feeds (ie. corn and soybeans). Starting there Harold first saw that there was trending behavior in the markets.

Harold has a solid trading philosophy that has been built from the ground up. He doesn’t worry himself with many things that usual market pro may worry about–like benchmarks or efficient markets. Harold looks at benchmarks as doing more harm then good in the industry. And as for efficient markets? He sees no academic proof behind the theory. Market participants make the markets move–they don’t just move automatically. Apple stock does not move from people buying lots of iPhone’s. The stock moves from market players buying Apple stock. A stock, any market, will not go up or down without participants engaging in markets making bets.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Brexit
Fundamental trading vs. technical trading
Price trends and haystacks
Media in markets
Trend following philosophy
Benchmarks
Efficient markets
Trading off the grid

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