Vitaliy Katsenelson and Michael engage in a conversation that starts with a discussion of The Subtle Art of Not Giving a Fuck by Mark Manson.
Vitaliy Katsenelson, CFA, is Chief Investment Officer at Investment Management Associates. While his primary focus is on discovering under-valued companies for his clients, he is also known for his uncommon common sense, which he has regularly expressed in articles in the Financial Times, Barron’s, Bloomberg Businessweek, the Christian Science Monitor, Institutional Investor, and the New York Post, among other outlets. He speaks frequently to investment groups around the world, and was most recently profiled in Barron’s. Previously, he was an adjunct faculty member at the University of Colorado Graduate School of Business, and he is also the author of Active Value Investing.
In this episode of Trend Following Radio:
Is it worth swimming in shark-infested waters to surf a 50-foot, career-record wave?
Is it riskier to make an action movie or a horror movie?
Should sex workers forfeit 50 percent of their income for added security or take a chance and keep the extra money?
Most people wouldn’t expect an economist to have an answer to these questions–or to other questions of daily life, such as who to date or how early to leave for the airport. But those people haven’t met Allison Schrager, an economist and award-winning journalist who has spent her career examining how people manage risk in their lives and careers.
Whether we realize it or not, we all take risks large and small every day. Even the most cautious among us cannot opt out–the question is always which risks to take, not whether to take them at all. What most of us don’t know is how to measure those risks and maximize the chances of getting what we want out of life.
In An Economist Walks into a Brothel, Schrager equips readers with five principles for dealing with risk, principles used by some of the world’s most interesting risk takers. For instance, she interviews a professional poker player about how to stay rational when the stakes are high, a paparazzo in Manhattan about how to spot different kinds of risk, horse breeders in Kentucky about how to diversify risk and minimize losses, and a war general who led troops in Iraq about how to prepare for what we don’t see coming.
When you start to look at risky decisions through Schrager’s new framework, you can increase the upside to any situation and better mitigate the downside.
Bio: Allison Schrager is an economist, journalist at Quartz, and co-founder of LifeCycle Finance Partners, LLC, a risk advisory firm. Allison diversified her career by working in finance, policy, and media. She led retirement product innovation at Dimensional Fund Advisors and consulted to international organizations, including the OECD and IMF.
Michael talks with Larry Hite about his first book The Rule.
It's the empowering story of Larry Hite’s unlikely rise to the top of the hedge fund world―with critical insights and lessons you can take to the bank
Larry recounts his working-class upbringing in Brooklyn as a dyslexic, partially blind kid who was anything but a model student―and how he went on to found and run Mint Investment Management Company, one of the most profitable and largest quantitative hedge funds in the world.
Hite’s wild success is based on his deep understanding that markets are flawed―just like people. Through his early-life struggles and failures, Hite came to know himself well―his fears, his frustrations, his self-doubt, and his tolerance for all of the above. This motivational book reveals that by accepting the facts of his life and of himself, he was able to accept markets as they are. And that was the key to his success.
You’ll walk of the footsteps of an investing legend, who imparts smart, practical trading lessons throughout the journey. Making a successful living in trading isn’t about beating the markets. It’s about meeting markets where they are, embracing the fact of risk, knowing yourself, and playing it strictly by the numbers.
The Rule shows that investing decisions are not only bets or gambles, but investments in time, energy, and attention. By focusing on realistic returns on your investments―versus what you expect or hope to get―you immediately improve your probability for success.
Larry Hite was the founding principal and Managing Director of Mint Investment Management Company. During his 13-year tenure at Mint, the composite of funds achieved a compounded annual rate of return greater than 30% before fees during that period. Hite pioneered the use of the “guaranteed fund” concept, which helped Mint be the first to raise over $1 billion.
The first prescriptive, innovative guide to seeing inflection points before they happen—and how to harness these disruptive influences to give your company a strategic advantage.
Paradigmatic shifts in the business landscape, known as inflection points, can either create new, entrepreneurial opportunities (see Amazon and Netflix) or they can lead to devastating consequences (e.g., Blockbuster and Toys R Us). Only those leaders who can “see around corners”–that is, spot the disruptive inflection points developing before they hit–are poised to succeed in this market.
Columbia Business School Professor and corporate consultant Rita McGrath contends that inflection points, though they may seem sudden, are not random. Every seemingly overnight shift is the final stage of a process that has been subtly building for some time. Armed with the right strategies and tools, smart businesses can see these inflection points coming and use them to gain a competitive advantage. Seeing Around Corners is the first hands-on guide to anticipating, understanding, and capitalizing on the inflection points shaping the marketplace.
McGrath is a globally recognized expert on strategy, innovation, and growth with an emphasis on corporate entrepreneurship. A long-time member of the Columbia Business School faculty, she is recognized consistently as one of the top 10 management thinkers. McGrath’s best-selling book The End of Competitive Advantage: How to Keep Your Strategy Moving as Fast as Your Business was recognized by Strategy+Business as the #1 business book of 2013. She is also a co-author of MarketBusters: 40 Strategic Moves that Drive Exceptional Business Growth (2005) and The Entrepreneurial Mindset (2000).
A T. Boone Pickens Memory with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.
Want to deliver a pitch or presentation that grabs your audience’s ever-shrinking attention span? Ditch the colorful slides and catchy language. And follow one simple rule: Convey only what needs to be said, clearly and concisely, in three minutes or less.
That’s the 3-Minute Rule.
Brant Pinvidic and Michael Covel dig into the rule.
Hollywood producer Brant Pinvidic has sold more than three hundred TV shows and movies, run a TV network, and helmed one of the largest production companies in the world with smash hits like The Biggest Loser and Bar Rescue. In his nearly twenty years of experience, he’s developed a simple, straightforward system that’s helped hundreds—from Fortune 100 CEOs to PTA presidents—use top-level Hollywood storytelling techniques to simplify their messages and say less to get more.
Pinvidic proves that anyone can deliver a great pitch, for any idea, in any situation, so your audience not only remembers your message but can pass it on to their friends and colleagues. You’ll see how his methods work in a wide range of situations—from presenting investment opportunities in a biotech startup to pitching sponsorship deals for major sports stadiums, and more.
JetBlue Chairman Joel Peterson and Michael talk through the playbook for establishing and maintaining a culture of trust that breaks down the operational silos and CYA mentality that plague many organizations.
Trust is the glue that holds an organization together. It turns deflection into transparency, suspicion into empowerment, and conflict into creativity. With it, a tiny company like John Deere grew into a worldwide leader. Without it, a giant corporation like Enron toppled.
How does it feel to work for a firm where leaders and colleagues trust one another? Freed from micromanagement and rivalry, every employee contributes his or her best. Risk-taking and innovation become the norm. And, as Peterson notes, “When a company has a reputation for fair dealing, its costs drop: Trust cuts the time spent second-guessing and lawyering.”
With The 10 Laws of Trust Expanded Edition in hand, you’ll be able to plant the seeds of trust—and reap the rewards of reputation, profits, and success. This fully expanded edition includes a powerful self-assessment tool for organizations to evaluate their culture of trust and discover areas for improvement. Peterson has also added rich new case studies and chapters on the theme of betrayal, including how to manage and guard against it.
Biography: Joel Peterson is the chairman of JetBlue Airways and the founding partner of Peterson Partners, a Salt Lake City-based investment management firm. Joel is on the faculty at the Graduate School of Business at Stanford University and has been since 1992. After three careers, four decades of marriage and seven kids, and demanding roles as CFO, CEO, chairman, lead director, adjunct professor, founder, author, entrepreneur and investor, Joel is often sought as a mentor and coach by leaders and aspiring leaders.
Paul Gulino believes in Hitchcock’s adage that “films are made on paper.” Although students may obsess about a film’s look, all of the visual elements, he says, function to enhance the story. And that, ultimately, comes from the mind of the screenwriter.
In spite of the fact that there seems to be a screenwriter behind every corner (in California, at least), screenwriting is something of a lost art, Gulino maintains, having seen hundreds of flat screenplays as a story analyst for Showtime Entertainment.
Honing his own skills through writing for the theater and practicing the craft as taught by Frank Daniel and Milos Forman, Gulino secured an agent with William Morris on the basis of his thesis script. With that “real world” confirmation in hand, Gulino went on to write and see produced features, plays and comedy sketches.
Screenwriting, he says, isn’t a craft you can learn from a book. “The best way is to learn from someone who knows the craft, so you can see how theories can be applied to your own work.” There must be something to that. Or at least it’s worked for screenwriter Paul Gulino.
Paul and Michael go on the film-making journey!
What's Old Is New with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.
Is the American system of colleges and universities designed to protect the privileged and leave everyone else behind? Or can a college education today provide real opportunity to young people seeking to improve their station in life?
The Years That Matter Most tells the stories of students trying to find their way, with hope, joy, and frustration, through the application process and into college. Drawing on new research, the book reveals how the landscape of higher education has shifted in recent decades and exposes the hidden truths of how the system works and whom it works for. And it introduces us to the people who really make higher education go: admissions directors trying to balance the class and balance the budget, College Board officials scrambling to defend the SAT in the face of mounting evidence that it favors the wealthy, researchers working to unlock the mysteries of the college-student brain, and educators trying to transform potential dropouts into successful graduates.
With insight, humor, and passion, Paul Tough takes readers on a journey from Ivy League seminar rooms to community college welding shops, from giant public flagship universities to tiny experimental storefront colleges. Whether you are facing your own decision about college or simply care about the American promise of social mobility, The Years That Matter Most will change the way you think—not just about higher education, but about the nation itself.
This Trend Stuff Won't Die with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.
An unconventional business book for the rebels and misfits--the Rare Breeds--who don't fit the traditional mold, offering an approach that's anything but business as usual. What if your biggest weaknesses are actually your greatest strengths?
Sunny Bonnell and Ashleigh Hansberger, award-winning brand consultants and founders of Motto, bring their wisdom and insights to this radical "outside the box" business guide written specifically for the mavericks, oddballs, and visionaries they call Rare Breeds. While most advice guides encourage you to change your inherent characteristics to get the job, get the promotion, get the client, Bonnell and Hansberger identify a different approach: instead of trying to conform, march to the beat of your own drum. By following your own path, you'll find your success.
They know this approach works based on their own experience. When these iconoclastic thinkers behind the company acclaimed by the Chicago Tribune and Forbes started their company, they didn't follow the rules of most leadership books and business school courses. "Instead of doing everything people told us we should be doing--be transactional, be conservative, be nice--we did the opposite. Instead of burying our innate vices--obsessive perfectionism, rebelliousness, weirdness--we made them our selling points." The result: a flourishing company that is the model for an entirely new approach to success.
Rare Breeds don't get what they want by adapting to the conventional rules: instead, they use the traits often considered shortcomings as tools for creation and growth. Combining examples and practical tools, Bonnell and Hansberger identify seven vices-turned-virtues--Rebellious, Audacious, Obsessed, Hot-Blooded, Weird, Hypnotic, Emotional--to help disruptors and trailblazers discover their inner Rare Breed and tap into them to realize their full potential in work and life.
Sunny Bonnell and Ashleigh Hansberger are the award-winning founders of Motto, one of the top branding and digital agencies for rule breakers and game changers. They’ve been featured on CBS News and Fox Business and in Entrepreneur, American Express, Chicago Tribune, Forbes, Inc., Huffington Post, the Wall Street Journal, and elsewhere.
The World Doesn't Care About You with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.
This week we explore a part of human nature that is often largely left untouched.
Over the past eight years, journalist Lisa Taddeo has driven across the country six times to embed herself with ordinary women from different regions and backgrounds. The result, Three Women, is the deepest nonfiction portrait of desire ever written and one of the most anticipated books of the year.
Based on years of immersive reporting, and told with astonishing frankness and immediacy, Three Women is a groundbreaking portrait of erotic longing in today’s America, exposing the fragility, complexity, and inequality of female desire with unprecedented depth and emotional power. It is both a feat of journalism and a triumph of storytelling, brimming with nuance and empathy, that introduces us to three unforgettable women—and one remarkable writer—whose experiences remind us that we are not alone.
Together we chat about how we as humans deal with desire – the thrills, the complications, the opportunity for misunderstanding. In a conversation, that I think, breaks new ground for this podcast, we really dive into the delicate nature of relationships and how we interact in them.
Lisa Taddeo has contributed to New York magazine, Esquire, Elle, Glamour, and many other publications. Her nonfiction has been included in the Best American Sports Writing and Best American Political Writing anthologies, and her short stories have won two Pushcart Prizes. She lives with her husband and daughter in New England.
I Love This Podcast with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.
Nick Radge began trading in 1985. During a stint working for an investment bank in Singapore Nick dedicated his evenings testing trading strategies; 2 hours a day for 18 months, a total of at least 750 hours. Nick’s first book, Every-Day Traders, was written to identify the traits of successful traders. What do successful traders do that is different to other traders? In Adaptive Analysis for Australian Stocks, Nick shows his readers how to use price action to make the most of their winning trades and, often more importantly, to quickly recognize a losing trade and exit their position. In Unholy Grails–A New Road to Wealth, Radge outlines simple strategies to make money during uptrends and how to defend capital when the markets turn down. Nick is a Director at The Chartist, a stock market advisory service based in Queensland, Australia.
This is Nick’s third appearance on my show and his no nonsense approach to life and markets is always a breath of fresh air!
Stop Looking for Efficiency with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.
Scott Kupor is the managing partner of Andreessen Horowitz. He has overseen the firm’s rapid growth to one hundred fifty employees and more than $7 billion in assets under management.
What are venture capitalists saying about your startup behind closed doors? And what can you do to influence that conversation?
If Silicon Valley is the greatest wealth-generating machine in the world, Sand Hill Road is its humming engine. That’s where you’ll find the biggest names in venture capital, including famed VC firm Andreessen Horowitz, where lawyer-turned-entrepreneur-turned-VC Scott Kupor serves as managing partner.
Whether you’re trying to get a new company off the ground or scale an existing business to the next level, you need to understand how VCs think. In Secrets of Sand Hill Road, Kupor explains exactly how VCs decide where and how much to invest, and how entrepreneurs can get the best possible deal and make the most of their relationships with VCs. Kupor explains, for instance:
Why most VCs typically invest in only one startup in a given business category.
Why the skill you need most when raising venture capital is the ability to tell a compelling story.
How to handle a “down round,” when startups have to raise funds at a lower valuation than in the previous round.
What to do when VCs get too entangled in the day-to-day operations of the business.
Why you need to build relationships with potential acquirers long before you decide to sell.
Michael digs into Kupor’s firsthand experiences, insider advice, and practical takeaways. His book Secrets of Sand Hill Road is the guide every entrepreneur needs to turn their startup into the next unicorn.
What We have Here Is a Thinking Problem with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.
Ten Years a Nomad is Nauthor Matt Kepnes’ poignant exploration of wanderlust and what it truly means to be a nomad. Part travel memoir and part philosophical look at why we travel, it is filled with aspirational stories of Kepnes' many adventures.
Kepnes knows what it feels like to get the travel bug. After meeting some travelers on a trip to Thailand in 2005, he realized that living life meant more than simply meeting society's traditional milestones, such as buying a car, paying a mortgage, and moving up the career ladder. Inspired by them, he set off for a year-long trip around the world before he started his career. He finally came home after ten years. Over 500,000 miles, 1,000 hostels, and 90 different countries later, Matt has compiled his favorite stories, experiences, and insights into this travel manifesto. Filled with the color and perspective that only hindsight and self-reflection can offer, these stories get to the real questions at the heart of wanderlust. Travel questions that transcend the basic "how-to," and plumb the depths of what drives us to travel ― and what extended travel around the world can teach us about life, ourselves, and our place in the world.
Ten Years a Nomad is for travel junkies, the travel-curious, and anyone interested in what you can learn about the world when you don’t have a cable bill for a decade or spend a month not wearing shoes living on the beach in Thailand.
Talent Is the Scarce Resource with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.
One of our fundamental desires as humans is our need to feel useful. The process of creating something or building a skill is at the center of a fulfilling life.
This is problematic when you consider the world we live in today. So many jobs are characterized by menial tasks, endless meetings, and little tangible impact. How can we redefine the way we get things done to better reflect our basic needs?
Dan Cable is Professor of Organizational Behavior at London Business School, and he believes he has the answer, or at least the tools, to equip people that want more out of their nine-to-five existence. His book Alive at Work shows many of the reasons for unhappiness at work. Organizations aren’t encouraging us to explore and learn, so we often find ourselves only partially engaged in work. The book is filled with real-world examples and outlines how both employees and leaders can ignite the curiosity and passion that drives us to achieve.
Dan’s research and teaching focus on employee engagement, change, organizational culture, leadership mindset, and the linkage between brands and employee behaviors. Dan was selected for the 2018 Thinkers50 Radar List, The Academy of Management has twice honored Dan with “Best article” awards, and The Academy of Management Perspectives ranked Dan in the “Top 25 most influential management scholars.”
Trend Following Legend Wisdom with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.
Nudge meets Hooked in a practical approach to designing products and services that change behavior, from what we buy to how we work.
Deciding what to create at modern companies often looks like an episode of Mad Men: people throw ideas around until one sounds sexy enough to execute and then they scale it to everyone. The result? Companies overspend on marketing to drive engagement with products and services that people don't want and won't help them be happier and healthier.
Start at the End offers a new framework for design, grounded in behavioral science. Technology executive and behavioral scientist Matt Wallaert argues that the purpose of everything is behavior change. By starting with outcomes instead of processes, the most effective companies understand what people want to do and why they aren't already doing it, then build products and services to bridge the gap.
Wallaert is a behavioral psychologist who has led product design at organizations ranging from startups like Clover Health to industry leaders such as Microsoft. Whether dissecting the success behind Uber's ridesharing service or Flamin' Hot Cheetos, he underscores with clarity and humor how this approach can improve the way we work and live.
This is an essential roadmap for building products that matter--and changing behavior for the better.
Going Back to MIT with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.