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Trend Following with Michael Covel

Bestselling author Michael Covel is the host of Trend Following Radio with 8+ million listens. Investments, economics, decision-making, human behavior & entrepreneurship--all passionately explored. Guests include Nobel Prize winners Robert Aumann, Angus Deaton, Daniel Kahneman, Harry Markowitz & Vernon Smith. Also: James Altucher, Dan Ariely, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Kathleen Eisenhardt, Marc Faber, Tim Ferriss, Jason Fried, Gerd Gigerenzer, Larry Hite, Sally Hogshead, Ryan Holiday, Jack Horner, Ewan Kirk, Steven Kotler, Michael Mauboussin, Tucker Max, Barry Ritholtz, Jim Rogers, Jack Schwager, Ed Seykota, Philip Tetlock & Walter Williams. All 800+ eps at www.trendfollowing.com/podcast.
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Bestselling author Michael Covel is the host of Trend Following Radio with 8+ million listens. Investments, economics, decision-making, human behavior & entrepreneurship--all passionately explored. Guests include Nobel Prize winners Robert Aumann, Angus Deaton, Daniel Kahneman, Harry Markowitz & Vernon Smith. Also: James Altucher, Dan Ariely, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Kathleen Eisenhardt, Marc Faber, Tim Ferriss, Jason Fried, Gerd Gigerenzer, Larry Hite, Sally Hogshead, Ryan Holiday, Jack Horner, Ewan Kirk, Steven Kotler, Michael Mauboussin, Tucker Max, Barry Ritholtz, Jim Rogers, Jack Schwager, Ed Seykota, Philip Tetlock & Walter Williams. All 800+ eps at trendfollowingradio.com/rss.

Jan 25, 2019

Kyle Nel is CEO and co-founder of Uncommon Partners, served as executive director for Lowe’s Innovation Labs, co-creator of Neurons, Inc., sits on the boards of various emerging tech companies, and a faculty member at Singularity University. His newest book is “Leading Transformation: How to Take Charge of Your Company’s Future.”

Everything starts with a narrative. It doesn’t matter how old you are, what religion you practice or what part of the world you live in – people live off stories. We take all stories, fiction and non-fiction, and relate them back to our lives. Stories are how humans interpret and accept new information.

Kyle went back in time, looked at the data and saw that every big movement was backed by motivation, cognition and a story. He would give presentation after presentation and see no change in behavior by his audience, until he started putting narratives behind what he was speaking on. His audience was suddenly able to make it relatable to them, and therefore believable and actionable.

Kyle focuses on helping companies break down the steps to building a strategic narrative, breaking bottlenecks and figuring out who and where the influencers are in their business niche. After laying out the steps for his clients he writes their archetype. Kyle knows that we live in an exponential world, and need to look at the market opportunistically. Good companies that incrementally improve year to year are looking at almost certain failure. He helps guide his clients to make those exponential leaps.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Strategic thinking
Creating narratives in business
Incremental thinking
Breaking bottlenecks
Linear paths
Exponential paths
Neuroscience
Behavioral science

Jan 21, 2019

Is It Reasonable with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Jan 18, 2019

John Lin is founder and CEO of Grasshopper, a high frequency trading firm providing liquidity in global markets. Grasshopper was founded in 2006 and is heavily driven by technology and innovation. After graduating with an Engineering degree from Cornell University, John worked his way up from a clerk position in the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Since then, he’s lived and traded internationally in London and Tokyo, and currently lives in Singapore.

John is one of the last traders fortunate enough to have floor experience on the CME. He got a job as a runner on the CME floor in the early 1990’s and from there he learned invaluable lessons on trading, discipline and respecting the market. What made John so interested in trading in the pits? He saw the pits as capitalism ground zero.

Over the years, with technology changing, John has had to adapt his trading style accordingly. John has gone through a gradual transformation in his trading – starting with his 15 year career on the trading floor where he interacted heavily with people to 100% computer driven high frequency trading. He has taken his experience from his early years of trading and poured it into his current companies. As a trader, you are taught you’re never bigger than the market. John knows he is always listening to the market when he trades, not trying to beat it.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Trading in the pits
Nick Leeson
Singapore legal system
Barings Bank – 1995
High frequency trading
Crypto currency
Interfacing with technology

Jan 14, 2019

Serendipity and Opportunity with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Jan 11, 2019

Tero Isokauppila is author of “Healing Mushrooms” and founder of Four Sigmatic, a natural super foods company specializing in mushroom-based drink powders. In 2012, he founded Four Sigmatic, spreading to Europe and Canada and eventually brought the business to the U.S. in 2015.

Tero grew up on a 13 generation farm in Nokia, Finland with both of his parents in the health, wellness and agriculture sphere. Some of his earliest memories were going into the forest when he was about 2 or 3 and picking herbs, berries, and mushrooms. He loved the berries but found the mushrooms so “odd.”

There is estimated to be about 1.5 million different types of mushrooms–that’s about 6 times the amount of mushroom species over plant species. Mushrooms are used for food, soil, psychedelic purposes, and medicinal. They are present in just about every aspect of life however not many realize how integrated they are in their everyday life.

There are two genres of mushrooms–functional and culinary. Generally, functional mushrooms are eaten for health reasons and culinary mushrooms are eaten for taste. Functional mushrooms grow on trees and culinary mushrooms grow in the ground. Skin, eyes, vitamin D, minerals, immune system boosters, and brain functions are all areas mushrooms can help in the body. Through Four Sigmatic, Tero has developed coffee’s, tea’s, elixirs, and other boosters enhanced with mushrooms to target all tastes and appetites.

An episode direct to health and wellness coupled with entrepreneurial drive.

Jan 7, 2019

The Self-Aware Path to Success with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Jan 4, 2019

Richard Sheridan is founder of Menlo Innovations and author of “Joy, Inc.” and “Chief Joy Officer.” He shares an inspirational guide for those seeking joy in the challenge of leading others and pushes readers to think, act and lead different. Too many live in quiet desperation. It’s Richard’s mission to bring those people out of those lives and thrive in whatever workplace they are in.

Before Menlo Richard was in a job that by all definitions he should have loved. He was creating art and making a real impact in people’s lives, however he was not happy. He realized he had created a culture where nobody at his company could make a move without his approval. He knew the company could not move forward any faster than him. Shedding the “smartest guy in the room image” was an important part of culture Richard wanted to instill wherever he went next.

In “Chief Joy Officer” Richard shows the importance of intertwining culture and leadership. He brings in his experience from running Menlo Innovations and his consulting elsewhere to offer a wise, provocative guide on how anyone can build leadership with a focus on joy within their own organization.

What is Richard’s definition of Joy? Joy is in service to others. He believes it speaks to the heart of the engineer. People want to see the work of their hearts, hands and minds be made and used in the world. They want to see their creation mean something to someone else and create delight. Too often people are motivated by artificial fear rather than motivated by positivity. Joy is the culture he wants everything he does to be centered around.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Extreme programing
Running experiments
Trusting your team
What is Joy?
Killing ideas vs. action oriented
Index cards

Dec 31, 2018

Inside The Game Theory Mind with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Dec 28, 2018

Harold de Boer is a trend following legend with a consistent track record dating back to the 1980’s. His approach to the markets can be seen as, “A farmer’s common sense and mathematics while at the same time never losing sight of the underlying fundamentals.” He is currently managing director and the architect of the Diversified Trend Program, responsible for research & development, portfolio management and trading at Transtrend–with over $4 billion under management.

Harold learned statistics on the farm and has found that a lot of what is seen in markets has a analogy associated with farm life. As he was finishing up college one of his final assignments was to find a real life problem that could be fixed by using his knowledge in statistics. He contacted a commodity trading firm who had a project from him to look at relationships between meats (i.e. pork and beef) and feeds (ie. corn and soybeans). Starting there Harold first saw that there was trending behavior in the markets.

Harold has a solid trading philosophy that has been built from the ground up. He doesn’t worry himself with many things that usual market pro may worry about–like benchmarks or efficient markets. Harold looks at benchmarks as doing more harm then good in the industry. And as for efficient markets? He sees no academic proof behind the theory. Market participants make the markets move–they don’t just move automatically. Apple stock does not move from people buying lots of iPhone’s. The stock moves from market players buying Apple stock. A stock, any market, will not go up or down without participants engaging in markets making bets.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Brexit
Fundamental trading vs. technical trading
Price trends and haystacks
Media in markets
Trend following philosophy
Benchmarks
Efficient markets
Trading off the grid

Dec 24, 2018

Aspire to No Goals with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Dec 21, 2018

Mark Miller is founder of The Legacy Lab and chief strategy officer of Team One. His work focuses on helping companies build legacies and make lasting impact on the markets they are in. Mark’s new book is “Legacy in the Making: Building a Long-Term Brand to Stand Out in a Short-Term World.”

How do those who succeed look at today’s world and move through it? Mark has come up with five principles: Put personal contribution before making money, internal culture must come first, it’s not just about growing your customer base but also collaborating with customers, lead in external culture and be the thought leader in your niche, and never stop thinking about your legacy – there is no such thing as 15 minutes of fame.

Companies nowadays must not only look at how to get off the ground, but also long term sustainability. Honest Co. is an example of a company that re-imagined a market and positioned their products to become a billion dollar success. Jessica Alba made the company a personal mission and attached her story to it–this passion spilled over into the company and fueled them to where they are now.

Other companies have become not only thought leaders but also culture leaders. Sharing technology rather than hoarding information can drive companies forward in unseen ways. Mark shares stories ranging from Ritz Carlton, Lexus, San Diego Zoo, Jagermeister, Mercedes, Apple, Microsoft and Tribeca film festival. These companies/organizations have re-imagined and helped their competitors push markets further by showing more interest in creating cultural and social change rather than dominance over their competitors.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Work for the modern age
Wow stories
Legacy companies
Re-inventing markets
Social and cultural change through business

Dec 17, 2018

Can You See the Landscape with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Dec 14, 2018

Jonathan Tepper is co-author of “The Myth of Capitalism: Monopolies and the Death of Competition.” He is chairman of Variant Perception, a macroeconomic research group catering to asset managers and co-founded Demotix, a citizen-journalism photo newswire.

Tepper notes — Google and Facebook control over 70% of all search and linkage within the internet. Their algorithms are biased and guide users to go where they want them to go. Most need Google or Facebook to login to certain websites. So on a platform as vast as the internet, where is the competition?

There’s a lot of smart, wealthy, entrepreneurial focused people around the world – why are they not fighting back? There is virtually no interest by people in Silicon Valley to get into the search engine game. Any small competitor that tries to insert themselves into the industry gets bought out by their larger sized competitors. Jonathan encourages capitalism and companies becoming monopolies because of organic growth. Unfortunately, this is rarely how companies grow. Monopolies are usually formed due to political advantages and strong economic footholds. Jonathan describes the economy right now as “fake capitalism.”

What will it take to overturn a Google or Facebook or Amazon? Will they be dominating for the next 30 years? The central point of evolution is competition – the struggle for survival. In a perfect world, companies with the best and strongest traits would survive while the old and fat companies would die off rather than continue to thrive because of crony capitalism. Only time will tell if these mammoth sized companies will continue to push boundaries and prosper or if a younger more creative company will overthrow them.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Technology monopolies
Capitalism
Airline monopolies
Anti trust laws
Federal Reserve
The banking system
Fake capitalism
The Antitrust Paradox
Patents

Dec 10, 2018

Time to Blame the Computers Again with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Dec 7, 2018

Follow the Opportunity with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Dec 3, 2018

Daniel Crosby is a psychologist, behavioral finance expert, asset manager and author of several books. His most recent book is “The Behavioral Investor.” Daniel’s background in behavioral psychology has taught him to look at markets as a backdrop to view human behavior in a real world setting.

Why did Daniel decide to write his latest book? What was his motivation? Daniel is a regular speaker at conferences. At those speaking engagements he was continuously hearing misinformation presented about behavioral biases in trading. He wanted to set the record straight about how to tap into emotions and explain how much personalities really play into trading.

As a psychologist who works in the markets, Daniel gets real time information on how people are feeling by looking at how price movements fluctuate. Daniel cites a study showing that 94% of the time rules beat out discretion in the markets. Betting on your “gut” almost always leads to ruin. Trading off rules doesn’t just lead to a better trading record, it also leads to less brain damage and heartburn. Daniel found about 200 different biases that can harm up trading. Within those 200 biases Daniel has created four main categories: ego, emotion, attention, and conservatism. He shows through facts and data how systematic trading is better on the pocket book as well as fostering a healthier lifestyle.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Functional fictions
Evolution
Human behavior in market price
Loss aversion
Behavior bias
Contrarian perspective

Nov 30, 2018

Ann Mei Chang is author of “LEAN IMPACT: How to Innovate for Radically Greater Social Good.” She was a technology executive with more than 20 years of experience at Google, Apple, and Intuit, as well as a range of startups before she pivoted her career into the private, social and non-profit sectors. She now works with companies around the world to help streamline growth and innovation.

Innovation is necessary for any company to grow. Ann helps non-profits and more risk-adverse companies properly take risks to improve their process. From global development to technology companies – there is a lot of uncertainty to combat against, grants to be filled as well as shareholders to appease. When tackling big issues investors and the public want to see tangible results quickly. Ann shows a balance between thinking big, keeping an eye out for what can be done better and keeping track of ever changing demand. Audacious goals are important, but you also need a process and plan of what is going to get you to that audacious goal.

Innovation is not only about creating the latest new thing, but rather taking something that is already created and making it better. Google wasn’t the first search engine, but they made it better. Facebook wasn’t the first social network, but they improved on it and made the experience better. Ann gives the example of a 700 year old invention – eyeglasses. With how long eyeglasses have been around, there is still about 2.5 billion people without access to them. Vision Spring is a non-profit that was created to reach these people without access. Vision Spring’s initial business plan wasn’t reaching as many people as planned and money was running out quickly. With continuously being open to making pivots in their business model, they continue to grow and reach larger and larger amounts of people. It is all about adaptability and innovation within whatever company your are at – non-profit to big technology.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Political grandstanding
Process vs. outcome
Understanding your base customer
Projecting bias
Non-profit work

Nov 26, 2018

You Are Responsible with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Nov 23, 2018

The Trend Following Mindset with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. A holiday reminder on great thinking!

Nov 19, 2018

Bradley Hope is a finance and malfeasance reporter for the Wall Street Journal and his latest book is “Billion Dollar Whale: The Man Who Fooled Wall Street, Hollywood, and the World.” Bradley is a Pulitzer finalist and winner of the Gerald Loeb Award for international reporting and the TRACE International Award for Investigative Reporting.

“Billion Dollar Whale” profiles a man named Jho Low – a young Malaysian man from a relatively wealthy family. He grew up attending the best boarding schools and finished up schooling at The Wharton School. During his time at Wharton he created a private equity group. He was able to get some of his wealthier friends and their parents to throw money into the fund. From a young age he knew what made people tick and had a talent connecting with very wealthy and strong political figures. Jho eventually got an audience with the Prime Minister of Malaysia to set up a fund for the Prime Minister’s campaign – this is where the real story of Jho Low starts to unfold.

Jho quickly went from a guy with a million or so dollars to worth about $700 million over night. He began throwing extravagant parties, renting private yachts and planes, and rubbing elbows with the world’s elite. He started buying giant stakes in companies and was even able to borrow 6 ½ billion from Goldman Sachs. The extent of how much he has stolen and from who is still largely unknown. Jho Low figured out how the world works, develop relationships and was the king of understanding that you could buy just about everything. With the scandal still unfolding in real time, Bradley’s book has created waves in countries around the world.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • The Wolf of Wall Street
  • Sovereign wealth funds
  • Money laundering
  • Goldman Sachs
  • Banking compliance
Nov 16, 2018

Daniel Peris is author of “Getting Back to Business: Why Modern Portfolio Theory Fails Investors and How You Can Bring Common Sense to Your Portfolio” and a portfolio manager at Federated Investors. Before transitioning into asset management, Peris was a historian focused on modern Russian history, but now self identifies as a business investor.

Daniel’s clients tend to be more conservative investors that approach markets from a business perspective rather than a passive investment approach. His main focus is to help clients make better business like decisions about markets. Not everyone has the time or desire to be an active investor, however Daniel hammers the point that if you don’t want to take responsibility for your own trading, there are plenty money managers for hire that will align with investors needs.

Daniel has strong views on economic practices like the efficient market hypothesis (Eugene Fama) and modern portfolio theory. Daniel sees the modern portfolio theory as particularly outdated. Modern portfolio theory was a hypothesis developed by Harry Markowitz in his paper “Portfolio Selection,” published in 1952. It is an investment theory that investors can build portfolios to optimize or maximize potential return based on a prescribed level of risk within the market. This theory governs the typical investors portfolio and is the most influential economic theory in finance and investment today. Daniel argues in his book and on the podcast that this system was developed in the 50’s and does not connect to 2018 investing.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Modern portfolio theory
Efficient market hypothesis
Value investing
Momentum investing
Diversification
Portfolio selection
Defining risk

Nov 12, 2018

Peter Boettke is economist of the Austrian School. He is currently an economics and philosophy professor at George Mason University; the BB&T Professor for the Study of Capitalism, Vice President for Research, and Director of the F.A. Hayek Program for Advanced Study in Philosophy, Politics, and Economics at the Mercatus Center at GMU. His newest book is “F. A. Hayek: Economics, Political Economy and Social Philosophy (Great Thinkers in Economics).”

Peter got hooked on economics during college after being hired for his first job – digging pools. He saw taxes being taken out of his pay and personally felt the negative effects. The philosophy behind why his checks were being garnished didn’t sit well with him. Rather than be frustrated, he got fascinated with the way economics worked and quickly saw there was something obviously wrong with the way government was ran. Along with signing up for all the economics classes he could, Peter went to the library and read. He had “a-ha” moments in those reading sessions that has molded him to be the economist he is today.

Michael and Peter touch on a broad scope of topics including: What is Peter’s perspective on President Trump’s view of trade wars and tariffs? Should intellectual property be protected? What is rent seeking and how does it relate to Jeff Bezos? What separates the American entrepreneurial spirit from entrepreneurs overseas?

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Trade deficits
Trump politics
Politics in the marketplace
Zero sum game
Jeff Bezos and rent seeking
The market for privileges
Merchant class mentality

Nov 9, 2018

Paul Britton is a portfolio manager at Apollo Systems Research Corporation.

What got Paul going down the trend following path? In high school Paul’s dad put him into a stock that went from $5 to $60. He took his profit and put money into a couple more stocks that turned out to be winners as well. These lucky trades peaked his interest in markets. Shortly after making these initial trades, Paul’s dad also gave him a copy of “Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.” He started working and looking at data trying to see if he could get a system of his own to work. He quickly learned that you can play around with entry and exit points, markets, etc., but as long as you pick up on the big trends and ride them until they lose–that was the #1 way to make money.

Paul lets the experts in different markets such as milk, coffee, orange juice, sugar, stocks, currencies, etc. “tell him how to trade” by showing their opinions hidden within the price. “You don’t need a fundamental expertise to be trading any of these markets.” Paul is in 110 different markets. He trades strictly off price and has no idea outside of price “why” stocks are going up and down. Every strategy they develop at Apollo Systems Research Corporation has to work on many markets and have maximum diversification. Paul loves adding diversity to his portfolio where other trend followers may not be.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Momentum bias
Let your winners run
Fundamental trading
Diversification
Global macro trading
Compounding
Supply and demand

Nov 5, 2018

One of the Omaha Guys Lays It Out with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Nov 2, 2018

Deliberate Practice with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

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