May 22, 2014
Have you noticed with equity markets at all time highs there are starting to be justifications again? It reminds Michael Covel of... The “this time is different” routine. Covel moves on to talk about Timothy Geithner’s new book, and how Warren Buffett approached him after bailouts. Covel talks about crony capitalism on both sides of the aisle. Rigged markets at all-time highs are not fun. It may feel great at the time, but there’s a hangover. Covel shifts gears and talks about classical economics. It’s all about assumptions that become axioms. Covel discusses the Black-Scholes option pricing formula, and how the edges are indeed important. Covel can’t predict or tell you when or how, but he can tell you that if you’re in a position with a system to take advantage of price movements, you can benefit on the upside, the downside, and the black swan side. Next, Covel gives an example of someone who was mugged outside of a bar and became a mathematical savant after brain injury. Given these gifts, will he work for Wall Street? There are too many variables to make a prediction, he says. Next, Covel moves onto a TED talk. He’s thought they’ve always been enjoyable--until now. It turns out the TED operation operates like a cult, as evidenced by a clip from the Joe Rogan podcast. Covel wraps it all back to classical economics--it’s a cult, too. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.