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Bestselling author Michael Covel is the host of Trend Following Radio with 9.5+ million listens. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trading -- all passionately explored and debated. Guests include Nobel Prize winners: Robert Aumann, Angus Deaton, Daniel Kahneman, Oliver Hart, Harry Markowitz & Vernon Smith. More guests: Jack Canfield, Howard Marks, James Altucher, Dan Ariely, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Kathleen Eisenhardt, Marc Faber, Tim Ferriss, Jason Fried, Gerd Gigerenzer, Larry Hite, Sally Hogshead, Ryan Holiday, Jack Horner, Ewan Kirk, Steven Kotler, Michael Mauboussin, Tucker Max, Barry Ritholtz, Jim Rogers, Jack Schwager, Ed Seykota, Philip Tetlock & Walter Williams.

Praise:

“Your questions were excellent questions. I enjoyed this very much.”

--Vernon Smith, Nobel Prize in Economics

“You’ve surrounded yourself with one of the most advanced group of mentors possible…The people on your podcasts, and people in your life, all are people with strong opinions, all people that make you think and make you grow. You just have some kind of an affinity for people like that, and that’s part of what makes you good at what you do.”

--Ed Seykota

“Michael Covel’s podcast has had over [9.5] million listeners and he’s completed [900+] episodes. He’s probably the most established podcaster on this list—and it shows. Mr. Covel’s podcast is great for those looking for alternative views on the market, those who are tired of hearing the same old stories told on CBNC and other traditional outlets. This is highly recommended if you are looking to expand your mind in investing. Mr. Covel has had some incredible guests, to include multiple Nobel Prize winners and world-famous investors. One of my favorite episodes was when Mr. Covel interviewed Annie Duke, a former professional poker player who has some incredible insights on decision making. Mr. Covel always has me thinking and Annie Duke only amplified my brain-wave activity.”

--Wall Street Journal

Feb 29, 2016

Michael Covel speaks to the timelessness of being a contrarian. He starts off sharing a recent email received. The email suggested Michael tone down the trend following talk and work with people to help find their calling in life. This email dovetails into an excerpt Michael plays of high school football coach, Kevin Kelley.

Coach Kelley is a contrarian thinking football coach. He is known for never punting and onside kicks after every touchdown. Coach Kelley ran the numbers and figured out the probability of winning with punting as opposed to going for it. He has had tremendous success from doing things differently and creating his own answers on the field.

Next Michael reads an article from Andy Staples, “The power of not punting: Why a college coach should adopt Kevin Kelley’s unconventional philosophy.” Andy Staples, a writer for Sports Illustrated, was curious about Coach Kelly and his unconventional coaching, so he visited one of Coach Kelley’s games. During that game, Coach Kelley had to give in and punt on one of his fourth downs. Andy asked, “How hard was it for you to do that?” Coach Kelley replied, “I didn’t really hate it at all. It is what it is if the situation dictates it is something that we have to do. It’s all about winning. It’s never been about anything else.” Coach Kelley’s players don’t win because they never punt and always onside kick, they win because the offense plays as if they are always going to lose. He turns the psychological tables on his opponents, and bases everything off of mathematical statistics. The math indicates that punting is actually the riskier choice.

Michael stresses that no matter how much fundamental information you think you may have, you are lying to yourself. The only thing that you can rely on in the markets is the price data. The only way to get ahead is to be a contrarian. Michael ends paraphrasing Ed Seykota, “Everyone gets what they want, win or lose. If you lose a lot you got exactly what you wanted, to lose.”

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Math in football
  • Thinking like a contrarian
  • Risk management
  • Fundamentals