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Bestselling author Michael Covel is the host of Trend Following Radio with 10+ million listens. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trading -- all passionately explored and debated. Guests include Nobel Prize winners: Robert Aumann, Angus Deaton, Daniel Kahneman, Oliver Hart, Harry Markowitz & Vernon Smith. More guests: Jack Canfield, Howard Marks, James Altucher, Dan Ariely, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Kathleen Eisenhardt, Marc Faber, Tim Ferriss, Jason Fried, Gerd Gigerenzer, Larry Hite, Sally Hogshead, Ryan Holiday, Jack Horner, Ewan Kirk, Steven Kotler, Michael Mauboussin, Tucker Max, Barry Ritholtz, Jim Rogers, Jack Schwager, Ed Seykota, Philip Tetlock & Walter Williams.

Praise:

“Your questions were excellent questions. I enjoyed this very much.”

--Vernon Smith, Nobel Prize in Economics

“You’ve surrounded yourself with one of the most advanced group of mentors possible…The people on your podcasts, and people in your life, all are people with strong opinions, all people that make you think and make you grow. You just have some kind of an affinity for people like that, and that’s part of what makes you good at what you do.”

--Ed Seykota

“Michael Covel’s podcast has had over [9.5] million listeners and he’s completed [900+] episodes. He’s probably the most established podcaster on this list—and it shows. Mr. Covel’s podcast is great for those looking for alternative views on the market, those who are tired of hearing the same old stories told on CBNC and other traditional outlets. This is highly recommended if you are looking to expand your mind in investing. Mr. Covel has had some incredible guests, to include multiple Nobel Prize winners and world-famous investors. One of my favorite episodes was when Mr. Covel interviewed Annie Duke, a former professional poker player who has some incredible insights on decision making. Mr. Covel always has me thinking and Annie Duke only amplified my brain-wave activity.”

--Wall Street Journal

May 6, 2016

Michael Covel interviews Ben Hunt. Ben is the Chief Risk Officer at Salient Partners and the author of “Epsilon Theory.” This is his second time on Trend Following Radio. He has an interesting way of looking at capital markets–through the lens of game theory.

Michael and Ben start the podcast off talking about buy and hold and why the strategy does so poorly. Ben moves on to break apart monetary policy and domestic politics and how they are intimately intertwined. When you have a world of massive debt, like we do today, then deleveraging naturally should take place. Instead, in today’s world you have the ownership of that debt shifted from private entities taking responsibility of it, to the government.

Central bank policies are always a direct reflection of the politics that are going on in the big four economies that drive the world; U.S., China, Europe, and Japan. The domestic political interactions going on in those countries are what you see in the world’s economics. This leads to cooperation during economic crashes, for example, during the great recession. Countries inflate their economy to get out of economic crashes. Going to a lower or negative interest rate is a perfect way to devalue a countries currency. Right now, we are moving from a positive sum on trade, to a zero sum on trade and Ben says that the outcome is very predictable. He says that we have seen this movie before and it isn’t hard to see how it is going to play out.

Michael brings up Ray Dalio and asks the question, “Why are all these companies putting their money in one place, with one company and with the same model?” Ben notes Ray Dalio’s massive amount of money that he manages and what Bridgewater (his company) has created is an easy process that is implemented in an automated and quantitative system. The whole notion of having a rigorous process and managing clients money within that process is Bridgewater and Dalio’s most widely spread influence. Bottom line, instead of trying to predict what is going to happen we need to try and react quickly to circumstances.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Monetary policy
  • What drives the value of currency?
  • Economics in recessions
  • Systematic models
  • Central Banks
  • Policy controlled markets
  • Expectations of the public markets