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Trend Following with Michael Covel

Bestselling author Michael Covel is the host of Trend Following Radio with 5 million listens. Investments, economics, decision-making, human behavior & entrepreneurship--all passionately explored. Guests include Nobel Prize winners Robert Aumann, Angus Deaton, Daniel Kahneman, Harry Markowitz & Vernon Smith. Also: James Altucher, Dan Ariely, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Kathleen Eisenhardt, Marc Faber, Tim Ferriss, Jason Fried, Gerd Gigerenzer, Larry Hite, Sally Hogshead, Ryan Holiday, Jack Horner, Ewan Kirk, Steven Kotler, Michael Mauboussin, Tucker Max, Barry Ritholtz, Jim Rogers, Jack Schwager, Ed Seykota, Philip Tetlock & Walter Williams. All 500+ eps at www.trendfollowingradio.com/rss.
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Now displaying: August, 2013

Bestselling author Michael Covel is the host of Trend Following Radio with 5 million listens. Investments, economics, decision-making, human behavior & entrepreneurship--all passionately explored. Guests include Nobel Prize winners Robert Aumann, Angus Deaton, Daniel Kahneman, Harry Markowitz & Vernon Smith. Also: James Altucher, Dan Ariely, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Kathleen Eisenhardt, Marc Faber, Tim Ferriss, Jason Fried, Gerd Gigerenzer, Larry Hite, Sally Hogshead, Ryan Holiday, Jack Horner, Ewan Kirk, Steven Kotler, Michael Mauboussin, Tucker Max, Barry Ritholtz, Jim Rogers, Jack Schwager, Ed Seykota, Philip Tetlock & Walter Williams. All 500+ eps at www.trendfollowingradio.com/rss.

Aug 26, 2013

Michael Covel talks with Dan Andrews. Andrews runs a very popular podcast at TropicalMBA.com. Covel and Andrews talk about "location independence"; optimizing for time and mobility; Andrews' beginnings as a teenager to where he is today; artists and entrepreneurs; Andrews' beginnings; how being in an entirely different atmosphere can bring out your creativity; how Paris in the 1920's relates to the creative explosion in Asia; the importance of having a blog and telling your story; why people need stories and ideas to follow; telling a story with your business; the importance of "starting" and the iterative process; your brand, and the nature of how you interact with people; thinking you know how to "do it" before you know how the "soup" is made; how hard work means so much more than talent; self-control, self-discipline; "failing forward" and getting used to taking emotional risks; hyper-globalization of small businesses; the revolution of podcasting; distractions, laziness, and doing an inventory on your time. Plus, to make it interesting, Covel and Andrews do the podcast in the same room in Saigon. An interesting conversation for anyone looking to leave the office cube work environment. Want a free trend following DVD? www.trendfollowing.com/win.

Aug 24, 2013

Michael Covel speaks with Eric Wong on today's podcast. Wong is with a family office based out of Hong Kong--his own family's office. His family is a group of entrepreneurs going back many decades, and Wong discusses their history and how he got to where he is today. Covel and Wong also discuss how the rest of the world has a long way to go to understanding how China operates; the niche that Wong's family office, TCG, occupies in the trading space; uncorrelated returns; the advantages of working for a family office; the entrepreneurial history of Wong's family; trend following data, data points, and the importance of data over a long period of time; the Sharpe Ratio, and why the rest of the investing world has a problem with rejecting it; the importance of pain as a measure; why Chinese investors are more driven by returns, and often agnostic to particular investment strategies; investor optimism; "nimbleness" to new ideas in Chinese culture; and entrepreneurism in Asia and America. Want a free trend following DVD: trendfollowing.com/win.

Aug 22, 2013

Michael Covel talks with Harry Dent on today's podcast. Dent studies demographic and historic trends to project major events. Covel and Dent come at trading strategies differently, but see eye to eye on a number of other issues. Covel and Dent discuss how demographics and consumer spending help to determine what might happen tomorrow; "the demographic clip"; "die-ers vs. buyers"; what happens when a smaller generation follows a larger one; zero interest rate policy and asset prices; inflation; how the government keeps the bubble inflated; comparisons to Japan; the forced spending of principal; whether we've lost the ability to have a conversation about the morals of our current policies; real estate speculation; how we've lost direction on the idea of "resets"; the boom-bust cycle; the importance of failure; "coma" economies; early retirement, and why you can't retire at 65; public employee pensions; and why we ultimately need a crisis to secure our future. Want a free trend following DVD: www.trendfollowing.com/win.

Aug 19, 2013

Michael Covel has had an interesting week of debate, argument, and discussion on an assortment of topics and he's been looking for a retort. He has allowed everyone to ramble away with their own logical fallacies, anecdotal hocus-pocus, etc. Covel plays a clip from Tom Cruise to illustrate the point of what he's been dealing with: paranoid, fearful, cult-like behavior. So where is Covel going with this? He plays a Samuel L. Jackson clip to show the kind of retort he's looking for. Next, Covel moves into an article that gets at the fact that "we don't even know what we don't know". The article is called "How America's Culture of Hustling is Dark and Empty", and Covel reads excerpts and comments on it. Covel discusses social media; media manipulation; trust; desert island trading; the difference between FOREX trading and other markets; getting away from the herd; knowing that the fundamentals can be faked; fear, power, and desperation. If people are in a trance and sleepwalk through life; if the vast majority of people are zoned out, it's a great opportunity for you. It's a great time to think clearly, because so many people aren't. It's the ultimate opportunity for entrepreneurs, and the ultimate opportunity for trend following trading. Want a free trend following DVD: trendfollowing.com/win.

Aug 16, 2013

Michael Covel talks with Jerry Parker on his second visit to the podcast. Parker is a trend following trader with over 25 years of experience. His firm is Chesapeake Capital and he was featured in Covel's book "The Complete TurtleTrader." Among many topics, in a Market Wizards/Charlie Rose interview style, Covel and Parker discuss fitness; the Hindenburg "omen"; objective entry/exit criteria; why you'd stay in a long position that you wouldn't want to enter into today; the "oversleeping" hypothetical; the idea that reducing volatility increases risk; definitions of volatility and risk; Parker's thoughts on trend followers not really having drawdowns in the typical sense; "managed futures" and why investors may not want that vs. "trend following"; definitions of "managed futures" and "trend following"; why managed futures isn't a good term for some. Note: this is the first in a new series with Parker. Free trend following DVD: www.trendfollowing.com/win.

Aug 16, 2013

Michael Covel speaks with Rolf Dobelli. Dobelli is a Swiss novelist, writer, and entrepreneur. He's the author of the best-selling "The Art of Thinking Clearly". There can be no greater objective for the population as a whole these days than to think clearly. Covel and Dobelli discuss availability bias; statistics; the sunk cost fallacy; the difficulty of logical thinking; authority bias and outcome bias; process vs. outcome; the irrelevancy and "white noise" of news; information overload; neomania and the obsession with the "new"; Nassim Taleb, outliers, and the black swan; J.P. Morgan, banks, and looking behind the facade; why watching and waiting is torture for people (the action bias); the idea that "the boat matters more than your rowing"; the paradox of choice, closing doors, and settings fire to ships; the "it will get worse before it gets better" fallacy and stop loss; and applying these lessons to daily life. Free trend following DVD: trendfollowing.com/win. Note: I am aware of the Taleb controversy. Two links to consider: http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/dobelli.htm and http://www.dobelli.com/the-taleb-problem.

Aug 12, 2013

Michael Covel speaks with Mebane Faber on his second visit to the podcast. Faber is a noted author, blogger, and portfolio manager with Cambria Investment Management. His new book, "Shareholder Yield: A Better Approach to Dividend Investing" is out now. If you're into quantitative style investing, Faber is someone who should have your attention. Covel and Faber discuss the state of quant investing in Asia; how asset allocation is like "bullets"; the benefits of quantitative-style systems; protecting yourself against your own behavioral biases; connections between biology and trading; behavioral finance; keeping yourself from making irrational decisions; boom-bust cycles and bubbles; quant views on the efficient market theory and buy and hold; Japanese markets compared to US markets; "cheap" and "expensive" countries and markets; asset class agnosticism; avoiding the big losses; investing based on dividends; momentum as a return factor; and exit strategies. Free trend following DVD: www.trendfollowing.com/win. Also, reach out to Mebane on Twitter @MebFaber and he has agreed to send everyone a free book.

Aug 11, 2013

Michael Covel's bubble is about to burst when it comes to arguments that appeal to emotion; logical fallacies. Straw men, appeals to authority, anecdotal arguments, and the like have all been on the rise. Covel gives some examples: Where is the proof and track records for predictive technical analysis? Trend following, which is a reactive strategy, has a mountain of evidence. A ton of performance data that gives an idea of how many traders across decades, markets, and economic climates both up and down, made money--and it's on file with the CFTC. There are a lot of people out there pushing this predictive TA. Where is the evidence? Yet, they came out swinging for Covel with the logical fallacies. There just aren't decades of track records like trend following. Another commenter tied trend following to his religion, even though trend following doesn't care about your religion--it's agnostic. Trend following is only about the rules, the process. Covel also talks about the phrase "active trader". Covel moves on to a clip from Pink Floyd frontman Roger Waters, discussing an argument over the song "Comfortably Numb" to illustrate his point. Next, Covel plays a clips from Ed Seykota and a clip from TED about Chinese one-party government. If you're listening, the threads connect. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to www.trendfollowing.com/win.

Aug 8, 2013

Michael Covel speaks with Jon Boorman, CMT, a market technician, analyst, and trader with 25 years of experience in global equity, FOREX, and futures markets. Boorman employs trend following and momentum strategies to generate actionable trade ideas. Boorman has been with many big firms in the past 25 years, but now works on his own outside of the infrastructure of the big investment banks and brokerage firms. Covel and Boorman discuss what it was like working within the big firms; Boorman's beginnings and how he found his way to where he is today; what advice Boorman would have for newcomers, and whether the training Boorman went through is still relevant to up-and-comers today; how regardless of your access, success comes down to the individual; price-based trend following vs. other technical analysis; Boorman's early "a-ha" moments towards trend following; trend following complexity, and why it can be "simple, but not easy"; trading your own personality; Van Tharp, risk management and position sizing; trend predicting vs. trend following; the fantasy of calling tops and bottoms; why the major media outlets don't give trend following proper coverage, and why trend followers don't make good "copy"; mistaken emphasis on entries rather than exits; the idea that Boorman "no longer having a need to be right" after he left Lehman Brothers; alpha capture; acceptance of trend following amongst the larger financial community; and understanding the legendary trend following traders such as Bill Dunn and Jerry Parker. Want a free trend following DVD: go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Aug 5, 2013

Michael Covel makes the connection between Miss Korea and a TED speech called "Embracing The Shake" today on the podcast. Miss Korea's video pokes fun at those wanting "more, more, more" and the TED video is concerned with an artist doing more with less. What can you do with less? In the trading world trend following by its very nature is about doing more with less. David Harding was looking for something he could do from a desert island. Getting back to the idea of doing more with less, Covel reads an excerpt about Harding from the Hedge Fund Journal. Harding stepped outside the sheep behavior of the efficient market hypothesis and looked at the data in a different way. Next, Covel plays a clip from former Russian KGB officer Yuri Bezmenov in which he talks about the four step process that forces people to become lost; the four steps which can be used to change the thinking and behavior of entire generations. Demoralization, destabilization, crisis, and normalization. The normalization can last forever. That's what's happening in modern day society. If that is it, the idea of David Harding being curious and looking outside the box (or inside the box as the "Embrace The Shake" video says) is more important than ever. Critical thinking is everything. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

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