Today on the podcast, Michael Covel interviews Frank Curzio and Robin Griffiths. First, Covel speaks with Frank Curzio of Stansberry & Associates. Covel and Curzio discuss how the fundamental guys justify all time highs in the equity market; the Shiller PE ratio; the importance of analyzing interest rates; Warren Buffett recent investments; what the Fed would do if we went down 30% today; why having a low interest rate environment creates a good situation for stocks; being prepared from a risk management perspective; Zero Interest Rate Policy, its effect on equities and bonds, and tail risk; comparing the environment today to the 1987 crash; hypothetical situations surrounding the S&P 500; exit strategies; and the 24-hour news cycle. Next, Covel interviews Robin Griffiths, Chief Technical Strategist at ECU and formerly at HSBC. Griffiths comes at it from a technical perspective. Covel and Griffiths discuss how to use fundamentals in an age when interest rates are artificially controlled; Griffiths’ history as a mechanical engineer and how he found his way into trading and technical analysis; regression analysis; Elliott Wave and cycles; the idea of whipsaws; geopolitical risks; China, India, and the rise of Asia; not trading off of geopolitical fundamental information; how Griffiths came to the conclusion that the efficient market hypothesis and much of what the mutual fund industry depends on doesn’t hold water; spikes and why people in 2014 think that all spikes are gone; Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds by Charles Mackay and the cyclical nature of booms and busts; and virtual currencies. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.
Michael Covel speaks with Toby Crabel of Crabel Capital Management. Covel first reached out to Crabel, who is a short term systematic trader, in 2005. Crabel’s approach is very different from Covel’s, but there are some commonalities: price action driven, systems, models, risk management. But Crabel is working on a whole different time frame, turning his portfolio over typically in less than a day. Crabel, a former pro tennis player, has a philosophical nature and discusses how he executes these philosophies in the trading world. Crabel and Covel discuss Crabel’s history as a pro tennis player and the connection between tennis and the drive he has in the asset management field today; longevity and consistency in tennis and trading; where Crabel stands with the total number of systems he employs; the source of Crabel’s profits and the philosophy behind it; price action; winning and losing volatility; why Crabel needs price movement and volume; the idea of price shocks and the importance of being aware of them; the process of moving from high drawdowns to a much lower drawdown; the importance of diversity; early lightbulb moments that informed Crabel’s trading style; Crabel’s experience with Victor Niederhoffer; how the philosophy of Objectivism has informed Crabel’s life; the liquidity of futures markets; and the importance of persistence. For more information on Toby Crabel, visit crabel.com. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.
Michael Covel speaks with Alex Greyserman. Greyserman is Chief Scientist at managed futures firm ISAM. He is also a professor at Columbia University. Greyserman’s new book with previous podcast guest Kathryn Kaminski is titled Trend Following With Managed Futures. Covel and Greyserman discuss the idea of young college graduates writing articles about the death of trend following while firms like Greyserman’s continue to have tremendous success; alternatives to thinking only 'long stocks'; Greyserman’s first meeting with Larry Hite and how they have come to have such a career together; why trend following is about more than getting on the right side of the S&P trade; the difference between cross-sectional momentum and time series momentum; the phrase “crisis alpha” and why trend following does well in times of crisis; the cost of not having trend following in your portfolio; benchmarking and diversification; why the worst thing you can do is “trend follow a trend follower”; the science of trend following; speculation; trend following your life--not just the markets; dispersion among trend following traders; and the effect of a higher rate environment. For more information on Alex Greyserman, go to isam.com or visit Amazon to find his book with Kathryn Kaminski, Trend Following with Managed Futures. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.
Today on the podcast, Michael Covel speaks with Anthony Todd. Todd is the CEO of Aspect Capital, one of the most successful managed futures trend following firms. Todd co-founded Aspect in September 1997. Before that, he was with AHL. Covel and Todd discuss why prices aren’t random; finding an inefficiency that the academic financial community refuses to acknowledge; the idea of “predictable” patterns in the market; the desire to know static positions; how crowd behavior drives trends; addressing misconceptions; using fundamentals in a systematic way; defining Todd’s medium-term style of trend following; why “it’s less about the genius of the trade and more about the repeatability of the approach”; how long you can be in a particular market before you give up on it; client understanding of trend following drawdowns; the phraseology of “crisis alpha”; the culture that Todd has built at Aspect; and Todd’s advice to young entrepreneurs. For more information on Anthony Todd, visit aspectcapital.com. Receive complimentary trend following DVD: trendfollowing.com/win.
Today on the podcast, Michael Covel speaks with Jason Fried. Fried is the founder and CEO of Basecamp (formerly 37Signals). Fried is also the co-author of the book Rework, which is about new ways to conceptualize working and creating. Fried and Covel discuss the first dollar Fried made online and other formative experiences; keeping business simple; making something more valuable than the dollars people give you; the intimacy of exchanging money; the idea of doing less than your competitors to beat them; building an audience; the “real world”; why an MBA program might not teach you much about entrepreneurism; corporate structure; focusing on what will not change; zen and the moment of right now; not focusing too far into the future; Fried’s experience with Jeff Bezos; and the idea of improvisation or “winging it” in business. For more information on Jason Fried, visit basecamp.com or follow him on Twitter at @jasonfried. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.
Today on the podcast, Michael Covel interviews Roland Austrup. Austrup is Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer at Integrated managed Futures, part of the IAM group out of Canada. Austrup’s firm comes at trading from a slightly different perspective: very systematic, but also using fundamentals systematically. Austrup and Covel discuss how Austrup got started in the industry, and whether he was always a “quant” thinker; early experiences with Ed Seykota; whether Austrup uses a systematic use of fundamentals or a discretionary use of fundamentals; why systematic can be frightening to certain people; managing risk and the return to risk profile; why Austrup targets a downside volatility of 13%; why “the returns will take care of themselves” if you manage risk correctly; trading trends and not market noise; being on the right side of a trend; the phrase “equity-like returns”; reviewing trend following performance in recent years; why Austrup’s strategy is not based on prediction; the importance of a broadly diversified portfolio; lack of correlation to traditional long-only equities strategies; and the current low rate environment. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.
Michael Covel speaks with Kathryn Kaminski on today’s podcast. Kaminski is deputy managing director the institute for financial research (SIFR) Stockholm Sweden. She’s also a contributor to CME Group. She earned her PhD at the MIT Sloan School of Management. At the MIT Laboratory for Financial Engineering, she conducted research on financial heuristics in collaboration with Professor Andrew W. Lo. Her new book, with Alex Greyserman, is "Trend Following with Managed Futures: The Search for Crisis Alpha.". Covel and Kaminski discuss survivorship bias; Kaminski’s background and upbringing; convergent risk-taking strategies and divergent risk-taking strategies; social networking as an example of risk; Apple as an example of convergent/divergent; the importance of failure; the efficient market hypothesis, the idea that trend following is “voodoo”, and the lack of transparency in trend following; critics of trend following; Kaminski’s “ah-ha” moment with trend following; why trend following works in times of crisis; the adaptive markets hypothesis; looking at markets like ecologies; divergence and “punctured equilibrium”; the process of going back 800 years analyzing trend following; the idea of black boxes; and the acceptance of trend following. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.
Michael Covel speaks with Vineer Bhansali on today’s podcast. Bhansali is a managing director and portfolio manager at PIMCO. His most recent book is "Tail Risk Hedging". He has 24 years of investment experience and holds a Ph.D. in theoretical particle physics from Harvard University. His new white paper is out titled “Trend Following Through The Rates Cycle”. Covel and Bhansali discuss “Trend Following Through The Rates Cycle”; trend following in the classical sense; how trend following started to become part of the discussion at PIMCO; introducing new ideas to PIMCO, corporate culture, and to clients; the three hypotheses tested in “Trend Following Through The Rates Cycle”; currency trading and trend following returns; why larger trend following shops may have trouble getting into smaller markets; trend following across a diversified portfolio and classical trend following approaches; connecting Bhansali’s hobbies to the quantitative world; structure and thinking in terms of code; imagining and building simulations; being distribution aware; and why being at all-time highs is not the time to feel satisfied. To read “Trend Following Through The Rates Cycle”, visit PIMCO. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.
Michael Covel talks with Joey Reiman and John Brenkus on today’s podcast. First, Joey Reiman, who runs Brighthouse, has been called the “father of ideation”. He’s emerged as the subject matter expert in the area of purpose inspired leadership, marketing, and innovation. His breakthrough purpose methodology and frameworks have been adopted by the likes of the Boston Consulting Group, Procter & Gamble, The Coca-Cola Company, McDonald’s, KPMG, and many other Fortune 500 companies across the globe. As an adjunct professor at the Goizueta School of Business at Emory University, he teaches tomorrow’s executives his revolutionary theories and applications for purpose-inspired profit. Covel and Reiman discuss Reiman’s background and mission in life; looking for meaning; figuring out your “why”; the process of teaching, and the areas where certain people may get tripped up; looking back to your beginnings; the destructiveness of outside voices; calmness and contemplation; solitude vs. aloneness; “money doesn’t create ideas--ideas create money”; why daydreaming isn’t necessarily a bad thing; creativity and environments; changing the world through changing your routine; routine and creativity; thinking with your heart as much as your mind; Apple vs. Google; raw talent, creativity, and environment; lucky people and “yes” people; the power of “slow”; and the importance of storytelling. The second part of this episode is with John Brenkus. Brenkus is the host of the ESPN show, Sport Science. Sport Science is an ongoing television series that explores the science and engineering underlying athletic endeavors. Anything about statistics and science has the potential to inspire Covel and with John Brenkus, he goes straight into it; Also discussed: what triggered the science and sports connection in Brenkus’ brain; science and martial arts; measuring human performance; why success doesn’t follow a straight line; Brenkus’ college experiences and how they are relevant to his work today; the idea of physical limits being reached; why Brenkus became a crash test dummy; the advantage of applying science to any aspect of life; and the Iron Man competition. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.
Michael Covel speaks with Mark Broadie. Broadie is the Carson Family Professor of Business and Vice Dean at the Columbia Business School. His research focuses on quantitative finance and sports analytics. His golf research has appeared in academic journals and many golf publications. He developed the new strokes gained approach to analyze the performance of amateur and professional golfers and worked with the PGA Tour on their implementation of the strokes gained putting stat. His newest book is called Every Shot Counts. Covel says: We all know about Moneyball. It looks like Broadie has carved out that niche for himself in golf science. Covel isn’t a huge golf fan, but when it comes to sports and science and statistics, Covel sees the trend following parallels. Covel and Broadie discuss how he became, in Covel’s words, the “Bill James of golf”; how Broadie connected his finance work to the sport of golf; why certain golfers win; why approach shots are the most important; “drive for show, putt for dough”; how Broadie started, the software he used, and how he got better data; whether Broadie had any sense of where the data might go when he first collected it; power as a separator; the connection between sports anaylitics, business analytics, and investing; the psychology of golf; first putts vs. second putts; the world golf rankings, and how these can be fixed. For more information on Mark Broadie, visit everyshotcounts.com. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.