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Trend Following with Michael Covel

Bestselling author Michael Covel is the host of Trend Following Radio with 6+ million listens. Investments, economics, decision-making, human behavior & entrepreneurship--all passionately explored. Guests include Nobel Prize winners Robert Aumann, Angus Deaton, Daniel Kahneman, Harry Markowitz & Vernon Smith. Also: James Altucher, Dan Ariely, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Kathleen Eisenhardt, Marc Faber, Tim Ferriss, Jason Fried, Gerd Gigerenzer, Larry Hite, Sally Hogshead, Ryan Holiday, Jack Horner, Ewan Kirk, Steven Kotler, Michael Mauboussin, Tucker Max, Barry Ritholtz, Jim Rogers, Jack Schwager, Ed Seykota, Philip Tetlock & Walter Williams. All 600+ eps at www.trendfollowing.com/podcast.
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Now displaying: February, 2018

Bestselling author Michael Covel is the host of Trend Following Radio with 6+ million listens. Investments, economics, decision-making, human behavior & entrepreneurship--all passionately explored. Guests include Nobel Prize winners Robert Aumann, Angus Deaton, Daniel Kahneman, Harry Markowitz & Vernon Smith. Also: James Altucher, Dan Ariely, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Kathleen Eisenhardt, Marc Faber, Tim Ferriss, Jason Fried, Gerd Gigerenzer, Larry Hite, Sally Hogshead, Ryan Holiday, Jack Horner, Ewan Kirk, Steven Kotler, Michael Mauboussin, Tucker Max, Barry Ritholtz, Jim Rogers, Jack Schwager, Ed Seykota, Philip Tetlock & Walter Williams. All 600+ eps at trendfollowingradio.com/rss.

Feb 19, 2018

Cognitive dissonance, especially in politics, is running rampant. People regularly contradict themselves just to be right. Jordan Peterson is a psychology professor in Canada who has become popular due to his opposing views and his views on political correctness. Michael walks through an interview with Peterson and a sister article breaking apart that same interview and points out the key issues.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Cognitive dissonance
  • Ad hominem
  • Political correctness
  • Politics
  • Gender equality
  • Gender pronouns
  • The lessons for life from this are profound
Feb 16, 2018

William Damon is a Professor of Education at the Stanford Graduate School of Education, Director of the Stanford Center on Adolescence, and senior fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution. He is one of the world’s top researchers on development of purpose in life and author of the widely influential book “The Path to Purpose.” In January 2018 he was named one of the 50 most influential psychologists. This conversation lets listeners to rethink their purpose and take inventory on their day to day life.

How does one get closer to happiness? Purpose is what drives individuals through life. It creates positive aspirations. People who think beyond the day to day and move toward goals tend to have a more fulfilled, happier life. Bill’s work help’s youth find that purpose as well as help elderly keep theirs. He has seen first hand how purpose motivates and makes people obsessed with life.

What is the typical trigger for someone to start searching for their purpose? Is there always a particular starting point? Everyone has their own journey, however there are usually patterns young people follow while finding their purpose. Often they have observed a person that has had influence, and they want to emulate them–whether that be a parent, teacher, boss, coach, etc. However, these influences can also help to cause doubts–which may not be a bad thing. It’s a natural human tendency to get charged up and pursue dreams with more zest when others say it is impossible. It took about four years for Bill to get recognition he was going down the career right path. Success is not overnight.

Prospective thinking is the new “a-ha” revelation that is coming out in developmental psychology. It’s based on being able to shape your own future regardless of your past. Michael and Bill end the conversation talking common decency, universal morals and values.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Purpose
  • Prestige of colleges
  • Celebrity status misconceptions
  • Developmental psychology
  • Influences of childhood
  • Prospective thinking
  • Basic morals and values
  • Public schools and curriculum being used
Feb 12, 2018

Michael Covel tackles Wall Street's new volatility and the blame of machines.

Feb 9, 2018

Chris Ducker is a British businessman, the founder and CEO of Virtual Staff Finder and the Live2Sell Group of Companies. Chris’s new book is, “Rise of the Youpreneur: The Definitive Guide to Becoming the Go-To Leader in Your Industry and Building a Future-Proof Business.” His book branches out to all audiences – regardless of where someone might be in their journey of building a company or brand.

What is a youpreneur? Chris realized about five years ago that people were personally signing up to do business with him. Not the brand name or the staff he employs, but him. A youpreneur builds a business based around them, the individual, but not reliant on them. Chris has created a movement centered on this philosophy. As you build a business around “you” all sorts of other opportunities start to present themselves. He encourages listeners to think about, “What sets YOU apart?” From there you can cultivate a business specific to you.

Centering a business around your reputation puts you in top control of a company or product you built. Why waste all that work by building your company on rented land. Chris stresses the need to grow your platform on your own domain. Don’t rely on Facebook or Instagram to look out for your best interests. Once you have your domain, what is the best way to reach your audience? By the year 2020, according to Google, 90% of content consumed by users will be by video or audio. Michael and Chris end on tips and tricks on creating a successful podcast, or going on a podcast as a guest.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Building your business on your own domain
  • The ripple effect
  • Email campaigns
  • Starting a podcast
Feb 5, 2018

David Ricardo would be just as successful today trading as he was trading 100’s of years ago. He understood, from a trend following perspective, that there is no value in prediction. When trading, you take an entry signal, get into the market, and ride the trend. It is impossible to know with certainty where the market will go, so you trade with the market rather than against it. Some think they have a grasp on bitcoin, but there is no way to understand the “why” behind it or any other market.

You don’t have to be an expert to trade bitcoin, gold, coffee, or cocoa – just have rules in place and start trading. Small losses will happen but they are balanced: home runs – small losses = extreme gains. Do the homework, put rules together and go.

Still uneasy about diving into trend following? Check out performance from trend following traders such as Dunn Capital and Winton Capital. Much can be learned from information in public trend following track records.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Time series momentum
  • Cross sectional momentum
  • Definition of managed futures
  • Diversification
  • Trend following diversification
  • Drawdowns
Feb 2, 2018

Annie Duke’s new book is, “Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don’t Have All the Facts.” She has taken her poker expertise and graduate level degree of psychology and digested it into a book we all can relate to our lives. She is a poker player, author, decision making expert, and cognitive scientist. Her understanding of how luck, skill and uncertainty all play a role in life is fascinating.

The foundation of decision making crosses over to all genres. She touches on football play calling, crypto currency, and everything in between. In Annie’s book she breaks down “the worst football play in Super Bowl history”, relating to Pete Carol. She proves that it was actually the right call in terms of probabilities and mathematics, Carroll was just unlucky. Carroll is on record admitting that it was the worst result of a call in Super Bowl history, but not the worst call.

Under a stressful situation, like the Super Bowl, would you be able to make the right call? How good are you about checking your beliefs and keeping your bets in line? Are your decisions and outcomes lucky? Smart? Skilled? Very few outcomes are solely skill or solely luck. Phil Ivey, arguably the best poker player in the world, sorts out what was luck and what was skill after every win or loss he may have in a poker tournament.

Learning occurs best when there are lots of decisions to be made in a compressed amount of time paired with lots of feedback to those decisions. Annie first studied this in young children learning to listen, speak, and digest words and quickly saw this study directly relate to the poker table. How do you learn when there is a lot of noisy feedback? Having limited resources, how do you use those resources to make educated bets?

Life is a series of bets that compound on themselves. Annie makes the point that, “I’m not sure” is the best answer in many situations – and there is nothing wrong with that. Coming from a place of uncertainty helps to make more rational decisions. When that decision doesn’t turn out well, you can then analyze how you can improve that action going forward.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Crypto currency bubble
  • Decision making
  • Game theory
  • Decision making groups
  • Noisy feedback
  • Decisions in uncertainty
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