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Trend Following with Michael Covel

Bestselling author Michael Covel is the host of Trend Following Radio with 6+ million listens. Investments, economics, decision-making, human behavior & entrepreneurship--all passionately explored. Guests include Nobel Prize winners Robert Aumann, Angus Deaton, Daniel Kahneman, Harry Markowitz & Vernon Smith. Also: James Altucher, Dan Ariely, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Kathleen Eisenhardt, Marc Faber, Tim Ferriss, Jason Fried, Gerd Gigerenzer, Larry Hite, Sally Hogshead, Ryan Holiday, Jack Horner, Ewan Kirk, Steven Kotler, Michael Mauboussin, Tucker Max, Barry Ritholtz, Jim Rogers, Jack Schwager, Ed Seykota, Philip Tetlock & Walter Williams. All 600+ eps at www.trendfollowing.com/podcast.
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Now displaying: December, 2017

Bestselling author Michael Covel is the host of Trend Following Radio with 6+ million listens. Investments, economics, decision-making, human behavior & entrepreneurship--all passionately explored. Guests include Nobel Prize winners Robert Aumann, Angus Deaton, Daniel Kahneman, Harry Markowitz & Vernon Smith. Also: James Altucher, Dan Ariely, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Kathleen Eisenhardt, Marc Faber, Tim Ferriss, Jason Fried, Gerd Gigerenzer, Larry Hite, Sally Hogshead, Ryan Holiday, Jack Horner, Ewan Kirk, Steven Kotler, Michael Mauboussin, Tucker Max, Barry Ritholtz, Jim Rogers, Jack Schwager, Ed Seykota, Philip Tetlock & Walter Williams. All 600+ eps at trendfollowingradio.com/rss.

Dec 31, 2017

Happy new year and please enjoy my all day 11-hour compilation covering 3 of my favorite guests. A timeless reminder to start 2018 the right way! And if you don't want to listen all the way through then enjoy my opening intro rant!

Dec 29, 2017

Ozan Varol is a rocket scientist, author and award-winning law professor. His contrarian view show throughout his writings and interviews. He focuses primarily on showing how extraordinary thinking produces extraordinary results. Ozan’s newest books are The Democratic Coup d’État and Comparative Constitutional Law: A Global and Interdisciplinary Approach.

Michael and Ozan Varol take a winding path through modern life across politics, geography and the proper way to argue.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Extraordinary thinking
  • The Democratic Coup d’État
  • Contrary thinking
Dec 25, 2017

A Merry Christmas podcast designed to challenge traditional thinking. Hint: Watch out for the biases and do the work.

Dec 22, 2017

Ken Blanchard is an author and management expert. His writing career spans over 60 books with his most successful being “The One Minute Manager” selling over 13 million copies. “The One Minute Manager” was first self published by Ken and his co-author and released in 1982. It quickly sold over 20,000 copies with no publicity, giving them a leg up when they were ready to negotiate publishing deals. Ken’s students span all backgrounds from large companies to entrepreneurs. His books have been translated into 40+ languages and the lessons and training he provides translates to all ages in all countries.

Where did it all start for Ken? Ken’s dad was an admiral in the Navy. He gave up a career on Wall Street to join the Navy and fight on the front lines of WWII. He taught Ken invaluable leadership qualities that he passes on throughout his books and in his training. What was one of his biggest lessons? You are only as good as the men around you.

Ken teaches three key lessons in one minute managing: one minute goal setting, one minute praising, and one minute reprimand. He believes good leaders are a combination of nature and nurture and proper training can go a long way in building successful relationships–which build successful companies. What are you doing to grow intellectually, physically, spiritually, and in your relationships? Competing with the best requires constant learning.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Seagull managing
  • Assumed constraint
  • Self leadership
  • Power of constant learning
  • Vulnerability in leadership
Dec 18, 2017

Cryptocurrency is sweeping the world. From taxi drivers to Instagram bikini models – everyone is talking about getting rich off it. Millions of people are willing to jump on board immediately–whether it’s a good or bad idea.

Building off that thought… Michael recently posted this question to listeners: “You have a trading strategy that you have tested over and over but you lose 5% the first year using it, what conclusions do you draw from that?” He reads feedback from listeners who are willing to throw their strategy away after having one down period. Warren Buffett, however, has famously said that if you cannot afford to lose 50% of your portfolio then you shouldn’t be trading – what do you think he would say about a mere 5%?

Michael finishes the podcast reaching back into his archives and pulling some trading rules from past trading legends. He calls this list his “43 Kickass Trading Rules for Bitcoin and Crypto Trading.”

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Bitcoin
  • Cryptocurrency
  • Volatility
Dec 15, 2017

Robin Hanson is an associate professor of economics at George Mason University and a research associate at the Future of Humanity Institute of Oxford University. He is an expert on idea futures and markets, was involved in the creation of the Foresight Institute’s Foresight Exchange, and DARPA’s Future MAP project. He is co-author of “The Elephant in the Brain: Hidden Motives in Everyday Life.” And today Robin and Michael dive right into the heart of our hidden motives.

“The Elephant in the Brain” helps confront hidden motives embedded in the brain–things people don’t like to talk about, also known as, elephants in the room. Robin shows that once our brains are able to confront these blind spots, we can better have a grasp on ourselves and the motivations behind how we think–which of course can then lead to possibly better policy.

Think about it: Why does one person find another attractive? Why do we laugh? Robin answers these questions and more throughout his work. He forces you to dig into the deeper, darker parts of your psyche and look in the mirror. And Michael takes great pleasure in letting Robin reveal his awesome insights on today’s show.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Hidden motives
  • Humans as political animals
  • Deception vs. self deception
  • Selfishness
  • Understanding your motivations
Dec 11, 2017

Very experienced guys make great interviews. They bring age, perspective and wisdom to the table. Tom DeMark and Perry Kaufman are two men that have previously been on the podcast that exemplify this statement. Michael went back into the archives to bring these men and their interviews on the podcast today.

Perry Kaufman is an American systematic trader, index developer, and quantitative financial theorist. He is considered a leading expert in the development of fully algorithmic trading programs. He currently is president of Kaufman Analytics.

Tom DeMark is founder and CEO of DeMark Analytics and the creator of the DeMark Indicators. Tom considers himself a market timer and believes that fundamentals are critical; however, he and Michael still have a lot in common. His work is price and technically driven.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Price movement
  • Fundamentals
  • Technical analysis behind the scenes
  • Elliott wave
  • The Fibonacci sequence
  • Forecasting
  • George Soros
  • Michael Steinhardt
  • Paul Tudor Jones
  • Steve Cohen
  • Computerizing indicators
  • 100% algorithmic trading
  • Systematic vs. Automated
  • Optimization vs. Validation
  • Tail events
  • Discipline
Dec 8, 2017

Matt Smith is CEO of Royalty Exchange, an online rights platform where users sell portions of their royalty income and investors bid on it. The primary goal of Royalty Exchange is to make royalty streams investable. They have held over 200 auctions in the last 18 months where artists and investors interact in the buying and selling of royalties. Recently Matt launched a sister company Royalty Flow–created to purchase larger royalty streams and get more investors involved.

What is the process of Royalty Flow? Investors can buy shares through a platform called Folio, those shares are then transferred to a major exchange like Nasdaq. Royalty Flow was created after being approached to buy Eminem’s royalties. Royalty Flow provides a way for a pool of investors to purchase. What are motivations for investors to buy royalties? Investors view this as a hedging strategy because it is uncorrelated to their other portfolios. In contrast, what are some motivations for selling off royalties?

There are hundreds of thousands of investors that contribute to artists getting their music out there – music producers, song writers, etc., not just performers. Those contributors have royalties. Artists and their contributors see the advantages to diversification and investors see a sense of security in having a steady flow of income outside of their Wall Street portfolios.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Streaming music
  • Music royalties
  • ICO’s
  • SEC regulations
  • Sesame Street royalties
  • Eminem royalties
Dec 4, 2017

Larry Hite recently called Michael and left him a voicemail regarding podcast episode #606. Larry has seen his share of ups and downs and has had a great career so praise from Larry was a nice surprise. Michael follows Larry’s praise by sharing a recent Facebook conversation with a critic. The conversation ensued regarding a post quoting Sam Harris. The back and forth that began with this Facebook “friend” starts with her calling Michael dogmatic (among other things) and by the end of the banter she evolves to calling him a cult leader. What is the takeaway from this conversation? Develop a system for dealing with people and their opinions. What is a key thing to keep in mind while developing that system? Not everyone’s opinion matters.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Trend Following 5th Edition
  • Dogmatic
  • Trend following performance
  • How to filter trolls
  • Sock puppets
  • Sorting the real from the fake
Dec 1, 2017

Michael Gervais is a high performance psychologist. He works with top performers to train and implement skills necessary to pursuing and revealing one’s maximum potential. His clients include world record holders, Olympians, internationally acclaimed artists and musicians, MVPs from every major sport and Fortune 100 CEOs. He is also co-founder of Compete to Create.

Part of Michael’s training is helping clients realize there are things we are in control of and things we are not in control of – therefore focus on what you can control. We can train our bodies, our craft and mind. Michael teaches clients through science based research that refining ALL three of these areas are essential to becoming successful.

So what does world class awareness look like and how do you achieve it? There are no words that can capture what awareness is, but when someone becomes fully aware, it is as if they are fully engrossed in the task at hand. They have an intimate understanding of how their thoughts, actions, and words are lining up with the environment. However, just being “aware” is not enough for mindfulness. Creating mindfulness could be as simple as focusing on one thing for a length of time. This might mean refocusing the mind thousands of times. As soon as you allow yourself to get into the moment, performance jumps astronomically. Athletes are a great way to judge this. They live in a world of compressed time. Most athletes only have a couple of years to compete at peak performance. Because of this, top athletes tend to understand being mindful and grasp the importance of being in the present moment faster than the average person.

Another aspect of Michael’s work is learning what motivates a client. There are two types of motivations: internal and external. Science has shown that people more aligned with internal motivations tend to outperform those motivated by external factors such as money, fame and power. However, regardless of your motivations or natural talents (or lack thereof), Michael stresses that greatness is accessible to everyone. Investing in mental skills that help deal with challenges that come your way is well worth the time to cultivate. Work on mastering the aspects of your life that you can control. Understanding how to do it is the easy part, implementing is the hard part.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Living in the present moment
  • Mindfulness
  • High performance training
  • Grit
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