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Trend Following with Michael Covel

Bestselling author Michael Covel is the host of Trend Following Radio with 5 million listens. Investments, economics, decision-making, human behavior & entrepreneurship--all passionately explored. Guests include Nobel Prize winners Robert Aumann, Angus Deaton, Daniel Kahneman, Harry Markowitz & Vernon Smith. Also: James Altucher, Dan Ariely, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Kathleen Eisenhardt, Marc Faber, Tim Ferriss, Jason Fried, Gerd Gigerenzer, Larry Hite, Sally Hogshead, Ryan Holiday, Jack Horner, Ewan Kirk, Steven Kotler, Michael Mauboussin, Tucker Max, Barry Ritholtz, Jim Rogers, Jack Schwager, Ed Seykota, Philip Tetlock & Walter Williams. All 500+ eps at www.trendfollowingradio.com/rss.
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Now displaying: January, 2017

Bestselling author Michael Covel is the host of Trend Following Radio with 5 million listens. Investments, economics, decision-making, human behavior & entrepreneurship--all passionately explored. Guests include Nobel Prize winners Robert Aumann, Angus Deaton, Daniel Kahneman, Harry Markowitz & Vernon Smith. Also: James Altucher, Dan Ariely, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Kathleen Eisenhardt, Marc Faber, Tim Ferriss, Jason Fried, Gerd Gigerenzer, Larry Hite, Sally Hogshead, Ryan Holiday, Jack Horner, Ewan Kirk, Steven Kotler, Michael Mauboussin, Tucker Max, Barry Ritholtz, Jim Rogers, Jack Schwager, Ed Seykota, Philip Tetlock & Walter Williams. All 500+ eps at www.trendfollowingradio.com/rss.

Jan 30, 2017

“I could be wrong I could be right. It’s a flip of the coin.” What is done after the coin is flipped is what counts. But people want a prediction. They want someone to tell them where a stock will go next, or where the S&P will top off at. The last question you want to be asking yourself when trading is where a price will be going next. It is just “you know what in the wind.”

Put aside reading charts and predictive technical analysis, life is naturally a wild wave that goes up and down. This will not change. Price momentum has always existed and it will always exist. You just need to have a strong strategy that gets you on the trend and gets you off the trend with the proper risk and money management in place. Michael pulls in quotes from Larry Tentarelli and David Harding.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Mental Masturbation
  • Price action and no prediction
  • Systematic trend following
  • Robo trading
Jan 27, 2017

This is Tom Asacker’s second appearance on the show. His newest work is “I Am Keats: Escape Your Mind and Free Your Self.” The title of his book spawned from a conversation he had with a friend whose 20-something year old son was still living at home. Tom told his friend “Too bad we can’t wipe his memory clean and start over.” All actions come from your memory so Tom figured if he could wipe the 20 something’s memory clean, he could rewrite his life. After that conversation Tom had a sequence of serendipitous moments that lead to the writing of “I Am Keats.” Tom gives a unique perspective on the human condition that will no doubt give all listening something to think about.

Tom’s work allows people to think of themselves as being in a “mental cell,” to think clearly outside that, and learn how to make better decisions. There is a powerful misconception among people that they have a predisposed identity. Asacker says, “Who you are is what you create.” Just because you choose to go one direction, doesn’t mean that you won’t have some serendipitous event that changes your course of life. Just enjoy your journey, whether it is a journey full of struggle or journey full of success. The process is the goal, not where you think you are going to get to in the future.

There is no linear path to success and happiness. This illusion of stability causes people to wake up when they are 40 or 50 and think to themselves, “What happened with my life?” Life is not predetermined. It unfolds as you live it. What you do in the past sets you up for the future. How do you compete with the Steve Jobs of the world by staying in your office cube? Stop hedging your bets, and jump off the ledge.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Taking a leap of faith
  • Traveling for the sake of traveling
  • Serendipity
  • Hypocrisy on the Internet
  • What are your “beliefs”
  • Cognitive dissonance
  • Being driven by inspiration vs. data
  • Bring the engineers in after you have the design
Jan 23, 2017

Michael uses an article from the “Financial Times” titled “A Warning for the Losers of the Liberal Elite” by Wolfgang Münchau. Münchau makes some valid points as well as weaving in made up assumptions that absolutely don’t exist in reality.

Everyday is a fight. You must wake up energized, and figure the game out. There is no permission needed. The successful do not ask for permission. The successful do not ask for “acceptable distribution of income.” Get a plan for yourself and execute it without making excuses such as “The economy is in a slump” or “But… Donald Trump is our next president.”

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Distribution of income
  • Asking for permission
  • President Donald Trump
Jan 20, 2017

John Jantsch is an author, speaker and marketing consultant. His company is Duct Tape Marketing and he has been around 29 years offering insights. His new book is “SEO For Growth.” John seeks out knowledge for his own personal growth, which then spills over into helping out clients.

One of the major ways to build your brand is producing new, information rich and constant content. Michael and John talk about Twitter and blogging strategies that help tap into your marketplace so you reach your optimal audience. Creating constant content won’t build you or your brand up very much if nobody reads it.

Moving on to SEO, John says “Page one results [on Google search] is your new business card.” When you hear a friend talking about someone or if you are looking for products and services, the first thing you do is search their name or brand. Having an active Twitter and LinkedIn account is a good start to getting your name out there. However, if you take it a step further and write an article for a news source in your field it could give you a much larger leg up on your competition. There was a recent study done with 2,200 buyers. 80% of these buyers made their decisions to buy before ever even contacting the company. They are turning to search engines and their social networks. If you do not show up in their initial research, then you do not exist.

Google’s original objective (when it was founded) and its current objective is for people to get the most relevant results related to their search. Over the years Google has gotten better at refining their objective by creating new code and stopping fraud. John dives into ways to help out your SEO with Google. Essentially it all boils down to creating great content. “Build it and they will come” rings true more now than ever before.

What are some of the things people are doing right now that are on the Google “do not fly list?” The biggest mistake made is paying people to get results by bogus links. It may work for a month or two but after awhile you will probably get blacklisted from Google’s search engine. This is the most obvious of the “do not do’s” with SEO. Content creation will help the most with SEO, and getting people to stay interested in what you are doing. Ebooks, podcasts, books, articles, etc. all count as content. Responding quickly to client emails or calls is also a great key to gaining strong followers. Expectations have gotten so low on the customer service front that something as simple as returning an email in a timely fashion may be the differentiating point between you and the competitor.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Benefits of podcasting
  • Evolution of podcasting and blogging
  • SEO
  • Behind the scene of the Google algorithm
  • Seven stages to your hourglass
  • Critics and criticism
  • Voice activated searching
Jan 16, 2017

Michael starts the podcast quoting from a recent blog post of Seth Godin’s called “The Candy Diet.” Most people want a Guru or someone to spoon feed them something, anything. They want to be told what will happen in the future. They are on the “candy diet” that Seth Godin speaks to. People want to be baited with quick and easy. Michael reads from the obituary of the late Jay Forrester next. Forrester made the point in one of his classes that not a single one of his engineering students had ever taken the back of the toilet seat off to see how it worked. Looping back to Godin’s candy diet piece: There isn’t enough curiosity out there.

Michael quotes Jameis Winston, quarterback for the Buccaneers next. Jameis was asked if the Buccaneers were playoff contenders. Jameis’ response was that he was just trying to be 1-0 each week. He was living in the “moment of now.” He wasn’t worrying about week five while he was playing a game in week one. This thought process goes for everything in life, especially trading. You need a systematic approach that keeps you in the moment of right now. Otherwise you become bait.

Jared Kushner ran the Trump campaign. He tried to run the Trump campaign on the cheap. He would see what worked, and if it didn’t work then they would cut their losses quickly. If it worked, they would keep that strategy going and scale it up.

Michael finishes up the podcast talking about the new version of his Trend Following book. He points out some edits the publisher wanted him to make to move toward a more politically correct book. Michael brings in a term coined by Nassim Taleb, “intellectual yet idiot,” to explain his stance on making his book more politically correct.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Political correctness
  • Curiosity
  • Living in the moment of now
Jan 13, 2017

Michael releases another mega episode with three trend following traders: Chris Cruden, Salem Abraham and Brian Proctor.

Chris Cruden has been in the trend following space for over 25 years. In 1988 he became a Director of Adam, Harding and Lueck Asset Management Ltd (AHL) in London, a famed trend following shop. He is currently the head of Insch Capital Management.

Salem Abraham is the President of Abraham Trading Company with a 27-year track record (with much trend following success). Over the years, Abraham has been kind enough to offer Covel fantastic insights. Abraham also appeared in Covel’s film, Broke, and is the last chapter of The Complete TurtleTrader.

Brian Proctor is an original TurtleTrader trained by Richard Dennis and Bill Eckhardt and today is a Managing Director at EMC Capital. He began his futures career in 1982, with experience at both the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. Proctor was a participant in the renowned Turtle Program, and managed all trading operations at C&D Commodities through 2000.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Price action
  • Trading only currency
  • Benchmark and time period selection
  • Don’t force the system
  • If you can’t measure it, you can’t manage it
  • Markets teach humility
  • Swiss Franc and Crude Oil
  • Asian economics
  • Location independence
  • The Turtle program
  • Diversification
  • Black Swans
Jan 9, 2017

Michael interviews Evan Carmichael, author of Your One Word: The Powerful Secret to Creating a Business and Life That Matter: "In this bold and empowering guide, entrepreneur and social media sensation Evan Carmichael shares the secret to turbo-charging your path to success on your own terms. With thought-provoking questions and inspiring, instructive examples, Your One Word will help you nail down your personal mottos – the word that captures your purpose and passion. With this operating philosophy in hand, you will then learn how to leverage this powerful tool to create the business and future of your dreams."

The real story? Two guys talking about the psychology behind successful entrepreneurship.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Entrepreneurship
  • Your one word
Jan 6, 2017

One of Michael’s favorite things to do is intellectually kick people in the ass. People have stopped thinking. We have social media overload and virtual reality is taking over reality.

Michael brings a clip from Daniel Dennett on the podcast. Daniel specializes in providing people with different tools for thinking. Thinking is not genetic, it is learned. “Do tools evolve and make us smarter? Or do we evolve to become smart enough to make tools?” The answer is: Yes. It goes both ways. Daniel uses a chimpanzee example to explain the difference between our minds and the minds of any other animal.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Flynn effect
  • Surely alarm
  • Genetic evolution
  • Shaping neurons in the brain
  • Intrinsic value
Jan 2, 2017

Michael and Wesley Gray cover wide territory today across the subject of momentum in the markets. Wesley Gray served as a Captain in the United States Marine Corps and taught as a finance professor at Drexel University. He earned an MBA and a PhD in finance from the University of Chicago and graduated magna cum laude with a BS from The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. Wesley is founder of Alpha Architect, an asset management that delivers affordable active exposures for tax-sensitive investors. He has published four books including: “Quantitative Value,” “DIY Financial Advisor,” “Embedded” and his newest book “Quantitative Momentum.” He is a contributor to the Wall Street Journal, Forbes, and the CFA Institute.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Efficient Market Hypothesis
  • Cross-sectional momentum
  • Time-series momentum
  • Trend following
  • Behavior
  • Career risk
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