Michael Covel opens up about his more interesting experiences in 2013, first talking about his experiences presenting to the sovereign wealth funds for Singapore and Malaysia. Covel moves into talking about the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (another sovereign wealth fund), and whether they are understood as a trend following trader or not. Covel talks about the “silent magic hand”, and its connection to the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, and whether this means they are now executing trend following in-house. Covel talks about how this means potentially less and less public information about trend following going forward. Covel moves into media manipulation and distraction and how it surrounds us 24/7. He also discusses an upcoming trend following conference in Asia in late 2014. Time to start kicking ass. No sitting still. Get on a plane now! Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.
Michael Covel takes us out of 2013 with his unique perspective on today’s podcast. Always the passenger, Covel discusses his travels throughout 2013. He moves on to discuss the people who have appeared on the podcast in the last few months. Discussing his most recent guest, Covel quotes Dan Ariely from a TED Speech. Covel notes that being a trend following trader is not about excitement; once you’ve figured out your system, there’s no day to day information flow that’s useful. That’s over: CNN, Bloomberg, etc. People think they need constant and more information to make decisions about the market--wrong. So how do you make good decisions in the light of so much information? Price movement, price action. Covel moves on to talk about simple heuristics and his recent podcast with Gerd Gigerenzer. Covel also announces a trend following conference in Singapore. Happy holidays! Free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.
Today on the show is Dan Ariely. Ariely is a professor of psychology and behavioral economics at Duke. He has a bestseller titled “Predictably Irrational”. He has given great TED Talks with millions of views. Covel and Ariely discuss irrationality and rationality on today’s show, including how we make decisions (with often poor processes). Covel and Ariely’s discussion includes the irrationality of fundamentals in equity markets; the wisdom of crowds, constraints and where else our money can go; the awarding of the Nobel Prize to professor Shiller and Fama--two famed professors with very different outlooks--and whether it’s irrational or not; macroeconomics vs. microeconomics; lessons learned during his life-threatening burns; why people lie; why the freedom to do whatever we want and change our mind is the shortest path to making bad decisions; and how 2008 became a constructive tool for Ariely; why Bubbles are some of the most imprecise factors out there; and Ben Bernanke. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.
Today, Michael Covel speaks with Gerd Gigerenzer. Gigerenzer is the director of the Max Planck Institute for Human Development in Berlin, and is a former professor of psychology at the University at Chicago. Gerd is also the director of the Harding Center for Risk Literacy (read David Harding the head of trend following firm Winton Capital). Covel speaks with Gigerenzer about heuristics. For those of you that trade; for those of you that invest; and for those of you that just want to navigate risk and certainty in your life, this conversation is mission critical. His work is the philosophical foundation of trend following success, for starters. Covel and Gigerenzer discuss uncertainty; comparing decisions to baseball (gaze heuristic); complex problems and simple solutions; using price action as a decision making cue; unconscious heuristics; the art of knowing what one doesn’t have to know; the less is more effect; the miracle on the Hudson River a few years ago as a case in point illustrating heuristics; the idea of an adaptive toolbox; the element of surprise in Gigerenzer’s work; the distinction between risk and uncertainty; intuition vs. rationality. This type of understanding is ultimately far more important than any trading system breakdowns. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.
Michael Covel speaks with Dan Collins. Dan Collins is a 25-year veteran of the Futures industry, founder of the Dan Collins Report and most recently was named Editor-in-Chief of Futures Magazine (Covel and Collins’ conversation took place just before Collins was named Editor-in-Chief). Covel and Collins discuss why the mainstream media seems to not even attempt to hide the bias and the propaganda against the styles and types of trading in the worlds that Covel and Collins occupy (i.e. trend following, systematic, managed futures, etc.); a particular Bloomberg article which attacked managed futures and alternative strategies; and why articles like these are an attack on the average investor. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.
Michael Covel talks with Eric Crittenden. Crittenden is a Founding Partner responsible for managing all research, risk quantification and trading operations at Longboard Asset Management. He's also been featured in Covel's own Little Book of Trading. Today, Crittenden and Covel talk about a white paper that was originally released in 2005 that concerns trend following on stocks. Topics of discussion include the decision to do research into trend following on equities, and the background behind the white paper; why others weren’t trading equities with a trend following strategy at the time, and why there’s been a sea change in the industry now; stress tests; how Critenden’s models and datastreams apply to a model; if Crittenden sees anything on the horizon that takes trend following on equities in a suboptimal direction, and where he sees it going in the future; whether Crittenden’s work is all price driven and all systematic; the amount of human judgment involved in Crittenden’s strategy; why this strategy works if it’s based on inefficiencies in the market, and Eugene Fama just won a Nobel Prize regarding the markets being efficient; why exposure management is more important than the entries and exits themselves; the importance of blocking out distractions.
Michael Covel monologue.
Michael Covel talks with Kathy Kristof. Kristof is a contributing editor for Kiplinger Personal Finance magazine. Kristof and Covel discuss the fact that, if we have bubbles, and we keep having bubbles, what does the average investor do?; the difficulty of trying to figure out value today (yes, clearly not Covel's world, but he listens to another perspective); the impact of interest rates on investors; the “nervousness” of stocks; government intervention and trust; why investors are better off with a “softer” job market, and a slower recovery; why we have a “Goldilocks” economy, and what might happen if a black swan swoops in; why almost every strategy will have good results at some time or another, and the importance of picking a strategy for yourself; technology, and the connection to entrepreneurial pursuits. For more information on Kathy Kristof see Kiplinger Personal Finance magazine and CBS MoneyWatch. Free trend following DVD: trendfollowing.com/win.
Michael Covel touches on on Motorhead, Hugh Hendry, David Harding, Vermeer, The Pope, acroyoga and Saigon psych rock in today’s monologue. How is it all related? Covel explores. First, Covel opens with a quote from Martin Bergin of Dunn Capital: “Everything we do is 100% systematic. There’s no over-ride, no individual decision-making whatsoever. That is the focus of the firm.” Covel moves into a clip from David Harding on Bloomberg. Harding doesn’t completely obliterate Eurgene Fama’s work, but he says, although his work is academic beauty, it doesn’t beat the performance of trend following. Covel then moves into Hugh Hendry. Although not a trend follower per se, he has often said things that are extremely trend following. The quote the Covel explores today, however, gives a clearer picture of Hendry's strategy (its not TF). Next, Covel discusses a documentary produced by Penn and Teller on the Dutch master, Vermeer, who may have used a tool to complete some of his paintings. The analogy to trading is there. There’s a system; there’s a process; there’s a model. Whether in painting, or whether in trading. Next, Covel talks about the Pope’s recent statement on economic inequality. Covel talks about how anyone who wants the politicians to legislate inequality is extremely naive. They have a vested self-interest. Covel moves on to talk about acroyoga, which he’s been practicing for the last several months. It’s reinforcing the idea of deliberate practice in Covel. That’s how Bergin makes that statement, and how Harding is so confident about trend following: They’ve been down the path of deliberate practice.