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Trend Following with Michael Covel

Bestselling author Michael Covel is the host of Trend Following Radio with 7+ million listens. Investments, economics, decision-making, human behavior & entrepreneurship--all passionately explored. Guests include Nobel Prize winners Robert Aumann, Angus Deaton, Daniel Kahneman, Harry Markowitz & Vernon Smith. Also: James Altucher, Dan Ariely, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Kathleen Eisenhardt, Marc Faber, Tim Ferriss, Jason Fried, Gerd Gigerenzer, Larry Hite, Sally Hogshead, Ryan Holiday, Jack Horner, Ewan Kirk, Steven Kotler, Michael Mauboussin, Tucker Max, Barry Ritholtz, Jim Rogers, Jack Schwager, Ed Seykota, Philip Tetlock & Walter Williams. All 600+ eps at www.trendfollowing.com/podcast.
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Now displaying: April, 2018

Bestselling author Michael Covel is the host of Trend Following Radio with 7+ million listens. Investments, economics, decision-making, human behavior & entrepreneurship--all passionately explored. Guests include Nobel Prize winners Robert Aumann, Angus Deaton, Daniel Kahneman, Harry Markowitz & Vernon Smith. Also: James Altucher, Dan Ariely, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Kathleen Eisenhardt, Marc Faber, Tim Ferriss, Jason Fried, Gerd Gigerenzer, Larry Hite, Sally Hogshead, Ryan Holiday, Jack Horner, Ewan Kirk, Steven Kotler, Michael Mauboussin, Tucker Max, Barry Ritholtz, Jim Rogers, Jack Schwager, Ed Seykota, Philip Tetlock & Walter Williams. All 600+ eps at trendfollowingradio.com/rss.

Apr 30, 2018

Today’s podcast features chapters 3, 10 and the Epilogue from Michael’s newest edition of Trend Following taken from his audio book.

Principles and lessons woven throughout Trend Following are timeless and endure through whatever current event may be rolling through the news.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Absolute Returns

Volatility versus Risk

Drawdowns

Correlation

Zero Sum

George Soros

Berkshire Hathaway

Risk, Reward, and Uncertainty

Five Questions

Your Trading System

Frequently Asked Questions

Apr 27, 2018

Alexander Elder has written some of the most popular trading books of the last 30 years. He grew up in Estonia among a successful family of doctors. Alexander followed in his family’s footsteps, becoming a doctor and making his way on a cargo ship. He ran from his ship to a U.S. Embassy, escaping from his country. His decision to jump ship was literally the best decision of his life. He is author of Trading for a Living, considered a modern classic among traders, an international best-seller, translated into 16 languages, and recently newly revised and released under the title, The New Trading for a Living. This is his second appearance on the show.

How is Alexander’s trading different? Alexander is motivated by creating quality. He has a sense and intuition for it. Someone who is losing money looks at their situation “like a rabbit running from a snake.” Alexander thinks differently. He trades by way of systems. He has his orders set for the day, goes skiing, then comes back to the computer to watch the last hour of trading to see if he needs to make any adjustments. He learns from his mistakes and makes sure his systems are the highest quality they can be.

What was the pivotal moment that broke Alexander into the trading direction he is in? There was not one moment, but many losing ones. He hates to lose. He overcame his losing over time with persistence and stubbornness. He studied his systems and trades vigorously until he had a winning system.

Another motivation? Knowing that failure was not an option. Alexander grew up in a successful family with money – If he failed in his home country, he would have been taken care of. However, now that he was in the United States, he knew if he failed he would be on the street. There would be nobody to take care of him. Do you hit rock bottom and paddle up? Or do you stay there and become a bum? Alexander chose to paddle up.

Apr 23, 2018

Entrepreneurship is a niche group that makes up a small number of the population. Being an entrepreneur is something visceral that starts deep down in a person. Michael reads from three pieces, adding commentary throughout, to further drive his point: “The Top Five Reasons to be a Jack of All trades” by Tim Ferriss, “Why Entrepreneur’s Start Companies Rather Than Join Them” by Steve Blank, and “Asymmetric Information in Entrepreneurship” by Deepak Hegde.

Entrepreneurs

Start up companies

Trading as an entrepreneur

Apr 20, 2018

David Burkus is author of “Friend of a Friend: Understanding the Hidden Networks That Can Transform Your Life and Your Career.” David has delivered keynotes to leaders of Fortune 500 companies and future leaders of the United States Naval Academy. His TED talk has been viewed almost 2 million times and he is a regular contributor to Harvard Business Review. What if the advice we have all heard about networking is wrong? David outlines the right way to network in the modern age.

How do you meet people? How do you meet the right people? Once you meet those people, what do you do with the relationship? Maybe you haven’t talked to someone for a few years but you could still call him or her up and have a personal talk with them. This is an example of one of the most useful networking ties, known as a “dormant tie.” David uses UFC founders, Dana White and Lorenzo Lamas, as an example. They went to high school together, hadn’t talked for years, both had a passion for fighting, but lived in different spheres of the fighting community. After reconnecting at a high school get together they realized they had some aligning career aspirations. They ended up buying the UFC and made it the fastest growing sport in history.

When you start taking chances on meeting people and putting yourself out there, that is when your network really expands. David shares another example of a movie producer who got his foot in the door by getting creative, taking some risks, and reaching out to the right people for conversations. Who do you know? Who do your friends know? Where do you know them from? These are basic questions that can get the ball rolling when trying to expand your network.

Knowing a ton of people is not necessary to be successful, you just need to know the right people to give yourself credibility. Shared activities and hobbies are ways to draw in a set of diverse people to build deep relationships. Networking events have become a thing of the past (thank goodness).

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Curiosity conversations
  • LinkedIn
  • Network science
  • Self observation
  • Dormant ties
  • Robust networks
  • Network science
  • The majority illusion
  • The spread of Facebook
Apr 16, 2018

Inspired by this post from Seth Godin… Michael expands it out on today’s podcast: “What is and what might be: They have much less in common than you might expect. The key step in creating a better future is insisting that it not be based on the assumptions, grievances and dead ends of the past. The future won’t be perfect. We won’t be perfect. But we can be kind. We can listen. We can give opportunity the benefit of the doubt. The future won’t always work. We won’t always succeed. But we can be alert and seek out the possible instead of the predicted. The future won’t always be fair. But we can try. We can care. We can choose to connect. It can be better if we let it.”

Seth Godin’s work centers around business, self help, and thinking clearer. Michael expands on Seth’s blog post by sharing an email he recently received from a disgruntled man who does not appreciate where Michael now lives – Vietnam. Michael’s main point? Assumptions, grievances and dead ends of the past should not be pushed on other people. You have a choice: Use past and present experiences to make yourself better and make your life better? Or let those experiences cripple you?

Embracing the moment of now is where the mind wants to be. Worrying about the past or future brings the mind down. Michael ends with another blog post from Seth Godin and an example of a client who is frustrated with his two months of trend following trading.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Travel

Experiencing life outside the U.S.

Embracing opportunity

Mindfulness

Apr 13, 2018

From IMDB: “An unsettling and eye-opening Wall Street horror story about Chinese companies, the American stock market, and the opportunistic greed behind the biggest heist you’ve never heard of.” That’s the opening description for a new documentary titled “The China Hustle” (2017).

Today, Michael talks with Director Jed Rothstein about the backstory for his film and the complexity of fairly describing a modern China. Whether you know something about China or not–this conversation will stimulate your China understanding.

Academy Award-nominated and Emmy-winning filmmaker Jed Rothstein specializes in hard-to-get stories from around the world that help people understand one another better. Whether seeking out heavy metal musicians who become Arab-Spring revolutionaries (PBS’s Before the Spring After the Fall); pioneering doctors (HBO’s Coma and Pandemic); Al Qaeda terrorists (The Oscar-nominated HBO documentary Killing in the Name); defenders of free speech (The 2009 Sundance film Shouting Fire); journalists on the front lines (Independent Lens’ Democracy on Deadline)–Rothstein works with people to help them tell their own stories in their own words. His films and television programs have played in festivals around the world, enjoyed special screenings at the United Nations, and been broadcast on HBO, PBS, National Geographic, Amazon Prime, The Discovery Channel, IFC, Channel 4, the BBC, CNN and elsewhere.

Apr 9, 2018

Michael reaches back in time to explore a mega episode with three of his favorite guests: Salem Abraham, Walter Williams and Emanuel Derman.

Salem Andrew Abraham (born 1966) is an American investor, hedge fund manager, and philanthropist. He is the president and founder of Abraham Trading Company, a futures investment firm based in Canadian, Texas.

Walter Edward Williams (born March 31, 1936) is an American economist, commentator, and academic. He is the John M. Olin Distinguished Professor of Economics at George Mason University, as well as a syndicated columnist and author known for his classical liberal and libertarian conservative views.

Emanuel Derman (born 1945) is a South African-born academic, businessman and writer. He is best known as a quantitative analyst, and author of the book My Life as a Quant: Reflections on Physics and Finance.

Staying within the title of this episode: three clear thinkers.

Apr 6, 2018

Brennan Dunn is an expert on optimizing websites, improving user experience and scaling up sales through automation. He knows how to persuade funnel customers to create a peak-buying strategy.

Reading dialogue from Plato has been a big influence on Brennan and his career. Plato had a way of talking to people on an individual basis. Brennan took the observation and has built his business model around just that – personalization. He figures out what level of awareness a customer may have on the subject he is selling and curates a selling strategy off that knowledge. Brennan calls this life cycle marketing. He segregates emails based on how long people have been on his email list, what your interests are, and different skill levels. People buy more often when they feel an offer has been completely catered to them.

How does Brennan write such effective copy? He starts with someone’s pain and shows them he knows where they are in life, where they want to be, and what their dreams are. Nobody cares much about what the product is, they care about how it will help them get to their dream. Copywriting is more about curating that creating.

What is the best way to get your message or product out to people? What is the most effective platform of communication today? Email. Brennan has launched products through Twitter as opposed to email and the results are nowhere near the same. Email reaches a greater number of people and is not owned by one company – it is a decentralized platform. Michael and Brennan end the conversation talking website development and the importance of usability and simplicity in a website.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Life cycle marketing
Persuasion
Copywriting
Socrates
Niche marketing

Apr 2, 2018

Predictive technical analysis is chart/pattern reading. Trend following, on the other hand, is reactive technical analysis – a diversified portfolio perspective of markets using momentum indicators. You never know what will happen in one market so you use diversification to hedge your bets. Predictive technical analysis has no evidence of success. Reactive technical analysis has decades of proof behind it. How do you find this proof? Seek out the track records of traders using trend following. You can see trend followers making and losing money over long periods of time.

Michael reads a review from a critic who is a fan of predictive technical analysis. Michael uses this review to further make his point – there is no chart that can be studied long enough that will tell you which way a market will move. Trading in this way is a recipe for failure. As Ed Seykota famously said, “Everyone gets what they want out of the markets.” When you trade as though you can predict the future, you will most certainly get what you want from the markets – failure.

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