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Trend Following with Michael Covel

Bestselling author Michael Covel is the host of Trend Following Radio with 6+ million listens. Investments, economics, decision-making, human behavior & entrepreneurship--all passionately explored. Guests include Nobel Prize winners Robert Aumann, Angus Deaton, Daniel Kahneman, Harry Markowitz & Vernon Smith. Also: James Altucher, Dan Ariely, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Kathleen Eisenhardt, Marc Faber, Tim Ferriss, Jason Fried, Gerd Gigerenzer, Larry Hite, Sally Hogshead, Ryan Holiday, Jack Horner, Ewan Kirk, Steven Kotler, Michael Mauboussin, Tucker Max, Barry Ritholtz, Jim Rogers, Jack Schwager, Ed Seykota, Philip Tetlock & Walter Williams. All 600+ eps at www.trendfollowing.com/podcast.
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Bestselling author Michael Covel is the host of Trend Following Radio with 6+ million listens. Investments, economics, decision-making, human behavior & entrepreneurship--all passionately explored. Guests include Nobel Prize winners Robert Aumann, Angus Deaton, Daniel Kahneman, Harry Markowitz & Vernon Smith. Also: James Altucher, Dan Ariely, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Kathleen Eisenhardt, Marc Faber, Tim Ferriss, Jason Fried, Gerd Gigerenzer, Larry Hite, Sally Hogshead, Ryan Holiday, Jack Horner, Ewan Kirk, Steven Kotler, Michael Mauboussin, Tucker Max, Barry Ritholtz, Jim Rogers, Jack Schwager, Ed Seykota, Philip Tetlock & Walter Williams. All 600+ eps at trendfollowingradio.com/rss.

Jan 25, 2013

For the past couple of years many of us have been in love with Apple. Their products, their style, and their stock. It was a great story as long as the stock was going straight up. On today's podcast Michael Covel talks about all things Apple: the worship; the seemingly romantic love of Apple stock; and the drop down to $450 a share from its peak above $702.10 in September (down 35% from its peak). Covel compares the fundamental viewpoint looking at Apple today to the trend following perspective that is purely based on price action. The Wall Street analysts all seem to insist that they can predict the future, but none of them predicted this. So, what does this mean? Is Apple a "broken company"? Apple had a profit of 13 billion dollars, sold 28% more iPhones and 48% more iPads, and the stock still went down. Covel looks at several articles from Wall Street analysts and notes that none of these people were saying what they're saying now when the stock was at 700 a share. Covel creatively points out the complete drivel coming from these analysts, and notes how nothing has changed on Apple's end but the price of their stock. So why is this only being pointed out now? And what is Covel's ultimate point? Follow the price action. Trend followers don't have to know anything about what's going on inside the back room of an Apple store. This is a classic example of a trend: ride the train up, ride the train down. Is the stock cheap now? What if it's at 350 or 250 next month? Do you buy on the dip? If the market is going down, get out or short it. The price knows more than any Wall Street analyst. There is no way on the planet to attach all fundamental views to the movement of the stock price. If the best traders on the planet don't have these insights, how can the stock jockeys at CNBC and Bloomberg, for example, have them? Free DVD: www.trendfollowing.com/win.

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